Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7901e18f5fd88aad9c932d8730ac5fdbd324bfd92f3714d0f281ec85d0875a1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Xtreme Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,259 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 4,167$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.71 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Aurora | 57c | 2,345$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.67 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 55c | 1,813$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.71 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 1,268$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.54 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Aurora | 55c | 1,107$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 562.99$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.13 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Aurora | 55c | 534.94$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.45 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 460.07$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.63 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Aurora | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…6774backed Aurora | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…c00abacked Aurora | 55c | 359.64$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.84 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4da8…6511backed Aurora | 55c | 347.27$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 49c | 325.65$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.27 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92de…87eebacked Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 219.03$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Xtreme Gaming | 48c | 209.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Aurora | 57c | 205$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 198.32$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea75…ae99backed Aurora | 55c | 196.4$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.38 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Aurora | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9a…bf13backed Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 189.96$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…47c8backed Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…b93dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Aurora | 55c | 178$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +8.5wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3c…3206backed Aurora | 56c | 176.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Aurora | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1c…0379backed Aurora | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…f563backed Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 175$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 172.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Xtreme Gaming | 20c | 168$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Aurora | 58c | 154.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Aurora | 63c | 145.93$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Aurora | 56c | 145$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…6596backed Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Aurora | 78c | 114.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 109.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Xtreme Gaming | 19c | 94.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Xtreme Gaming | 36c | 78.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Aurora | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Aurora | 55c | 73.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 48c | 73.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 17c | 70.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…5bf9backed Aurora | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed Aurora | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Xtreme Gaming | 22c | 63.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…6aa5backed Aurora | 80c | 61.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa77…bf95backed Aurora | 59c | 59.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 259 | 53.3%138 W · 121 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dab…f602backed Xtreme Gaming | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Aurora | 57c | 57.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x034b…6e29backed Aurora | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…a4cbbacked Xtreme Gaming | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Aurora | 59c | 45.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 44.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…83b3backed Aurora | 58c | 41.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Aurora | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked Xtreme Gaming | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd20…d9eabacked Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…70c5backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…c2bbbacked Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Aurora | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 29.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2709backed Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…643dbacked Aurora | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.