TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, Xtreme Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$118,684

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,684 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora54c24,922$13,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,484.5133746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Xtreme Gaming46c24,409$11,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,228.15549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora55c17,013$9,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,724.1254556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Xtreme Gaming46c12,999$5,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,979.5222647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Xtreme Gaming46c9,808$4,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,506.9496557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Aurora57c6,957$3,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,994.7413441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xacce…72e8backed Xtreme Gaming43c6,666$2,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,882.383435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Xtreme Gaming42c6,211$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6001,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Aurora59c6,002$3,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,472.8923653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x55db…8db6backed Aurora75c5,814$4,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.283360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Aurora54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30045139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora66c4,207$2,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.6386949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Aurora60c2,155$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.4962650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Xtreme Gaming40c2,010$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8047941.8%33 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Aurora54c2,000$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92718362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d3f…ab65backed Xtreme Gaming48c2,000$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.549749.5%48 W · 49 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora60c1,674$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.8157455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Xtreme Gaming40c1,639$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.6136041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Xtreme Gaming40c1,599$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.6881029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora71c1,332$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.6847660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Xtreme Gaming31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31014443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked Aurora60c943.37$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.3715461.7%95 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Aurora54c900$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41431245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Xtreme Gaming37c899.95$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.5451751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1942…2c75backed Xtreme Gaming37c810.81$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Aurora59c758.1$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.9246649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3eb…33d3backed Xtreme Gaming47c745$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.155450%27 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x974a…98c3backed Xtreme Gaming42c715.46$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.573542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Xtreme Gaming26c708.81$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.5318746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Xtreme Gaming42c676.19$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28618954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Aurora65c600$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21023050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Aurora59c521.01$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.6114253.5%76 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora69c501.55$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.871,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25080443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Aurora60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20036654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ccb…bbd7backed Xtreme Gaming41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005837.9%22 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Xtreme Gaming43c446.23$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19115545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora64c413.5$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.392,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Aurora55c406.27$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.3539660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Xtreme Gaming41c402.81$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.517231.9%23 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Xtreme Gaming43c399.6$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.331,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908b…247cbacked Xtreme Gaming41c313.05$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.358254.9%45 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Aurora50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15025147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed Aurora50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15034860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Xtreme Gaming40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1208844.3%39 W · 49 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15034154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b1…a7b6backed Xtreme Gaming42c299.26$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd73e…bb87backed Xtreme Gaming44c295.45$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1307252.8%38 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Xtreme Gaming50c268$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13433549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Aurora60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10060251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63a2…5bc1backed Xtreme Gaming41c245$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2512638.9%49 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Aurora50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10067555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11c3…f000backed Xtreme Gaming28c200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x18fe…a4a0backed Aurora58c173.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.16450%32 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1d…d8c0backed Aurora60c170.58$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6316152.2%84 W · 77 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Xtreme Gaming42c167.09$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6450832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Aurora70c142.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7125457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Aurora54c136.23$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6680742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Xtreme Gaming27c133.43$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.278516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Aurora50c122.04$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.028543.5%37 W · 48 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed Aurora63c120$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.412661.1%77 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Xtreme Gaming14c118.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.162,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed Xtreme Gaming43c112.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.756058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4462…7807backed Aurora56c110.71$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7112650.8%64 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ad9…7bf6backed Xtreme Gaming32c110.07$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.57133.8%24 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e7…174fbacked Xtreme Gaming43c104.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0942…f42fbacked Aurora50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505438.9%21 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked Aurora50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5040745.5%185 W · 222 L-1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2092056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Aurora56c99.94$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.471,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51c2…2b13backed Xtreme Gaming46c97.83$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13aa…88d6backed Aurora63c95.72$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7218769%129 W · 58 L+20.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+18.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Aurora59c84.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8586451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Aurora53c78.14$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.732839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea15…ba9ebacked Aurora60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab05…52e9backed Aurora52c67.17$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0517448.9%85 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cb…63bebacked Aurora60c66.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3912455.6%69 W · 55 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Xtreme Gaming43c60.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.281,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Xtreme Gaming42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.23852.6%20 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Aurora52c54.89$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-52.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Aurora66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1792561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x440a…8181backed Aurora64c46.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.882152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x33da…f818backed Xtreme Gaming50c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.55655.4%31 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5955backed Aurora74c42.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe252…2071backed Xtreme Gaming25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017149.7%85 W · 86 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca7…3411backed Xtreme Gaming40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167068.6%48 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4414…9474backed Aurora71c35.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.216950.7%35 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Xtreme Gaming51c33.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9860%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9368…8b01backed Xtreme Gaming40c31.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.655724.6%14 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Xtreme Gaming41c30.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.613636%49 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4b4…17b1backed Xtreme Gaming36c29.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6813331.6%42 W · 91 L-10.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7447…91ecbacked Aurora74c26.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.796055%33 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Aurora60c22.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0729656.1%166 W · 130 L+18.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x96dc…2c45backed Aurora60c21.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.676152.5%32 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Xtreme Gaming50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1037456.4%211 W · 163 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cec…921abacked Aurora50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.