TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: SportsBetExpert vs LAG Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
SportsBetExpertof SportsBetExpert, LAG Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,711 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf370…4f88backed LAG Gaming63c1,266$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.512450%12 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed LAG Gaming22c1,233$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.212,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed LAG Gaming39c1,183$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.8646843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc79a…9b44backed LAG Gaming1c1,141$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked SportsBetExpert43c1,133$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.163,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc8e…f961backed LAG Gaming18c1,023$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed LAG Gaming29c934.92$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.3156732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked SportsBetExpert36c651.14$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.211,72346.8%807 W · 916 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x520e…d75abacked LAG Gaming65c634.14$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.233240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed LAG Gaming46c631$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.4146344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed LAG Gaming43c590$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.9124747%116 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95cf…fd9dbacked SportsBetExpert28c509$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.481145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9500…d55cbacked SportsBetExpert29c507$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.97633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed SportsBetExpert37c504.65$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.3323245.3%105 W · 127 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x893d…d65bbacked SportsBetExpert78c488.49$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.993351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked LAG Gaming39c482$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.6149745.9%228 W · 269 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked SportsBetExpert32c457.99$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.859027.8%25 W · 65 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked LAG Gaming39c447$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.9754346.2%251 W · 292 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1071…e39ebacked LAG Gaming11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441020%2 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc332…59a9backed SportsBetExpert78c346.91$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.021553.3%8 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick68cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1aff…ed85backed SportsBetExpert51c330.73$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked LAG Gaming12c324.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3943437.6%163 W · 271 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62ca…1277backed LAG Gaming11c311.46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.26825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+58.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed LAG Gaming45c299.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9939245.9%180 W · 212 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed LAG Gaming18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,04645%471 W · 575 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x631f…cfb2backed LAG Gaming71c276$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.96633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-39.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked SportsBetExpert78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4111837.3%44 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x806e…314fbacked LAG Gaming72c255$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.6825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8510…e41ebacked SportsBetExpert43c254.96$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.961855.6%10 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.25per pick31cpaid+50.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x70e7…c04dbacked LAG Gaming72c254$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.88742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4b85…b09abacked SportsBetExpert79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.161369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+35.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2073…3af0backed LAG Gaming71c253$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.631136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x289e…49b2backed LAG Gaming68c237.08$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.21757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick70cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcac1…1b0fbacked LAG Gaming71c231$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.01742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5703…1cf9backed SportsBetExpert29c214$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc38…d22bbacked SportsBetExpert71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582470.8%17 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed SportsBetExpert40c196.45$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.151,59429.7%473 W · 1,121 L-88.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed LAG Gaming51c196.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048562.7%304 W · 181 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked SportsBetExpert58c192.69$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.687,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked SportsBetExpert61c180.34$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.371,39752.4%732 W · 665 L+30.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x026c…8d76backed LAG Gaming63c178$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-78.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed LAG Gaming24c175.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.752,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed SportsBetExpert37c173.36$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.2945639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd63…a39abacked LAG Gaming47c169.14$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8012525.6%32 W · 93 L-12.8wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4627…b830backed LAG Gaming62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed LAG Gaming51c160.18$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0852755.8%294 W · 233 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed LAG Gaming20c160$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.145224.3%110 W · 342 L-52.4wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8a0e…021ebacked LAG Gaming55c159.07$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.292231.8%7 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x8e8f…870ebacked LAG Gaming63c158$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5422542.7%96 W · 129 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b4…8bf7backed SportsBetExpert37c158$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.54119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.20per pick30cpaid-75.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed LAG Gaming31c152.05$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.852,47424.7%611 W · 1,863 L-316.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed LAG Gaming56c150$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846858.8%40 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7244…b819backed LAG Gaming40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6014853.4%79 W · 69 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked LAG Gaming15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.53622.2%8 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed LAG Gaming31c149.71$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.965,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed SportsBetExpert39c146.73$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.571,54833.9%524 W · 1,024 L-73.9wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90a3…15c6backed SportsBetExpert26c145$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f0…b9c6backed SportsBetExpert29c145$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.95988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.41per pick48cpaid+92.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9637…9785backed SportsBetExpert24c143$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.68742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2b…0dd7backed SportsBetExpert67c141.75$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.55955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x886e…98e0backed SportsBetExpert28c139$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.081346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff0b…d06bbacked LAG Gaming74c137$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.381338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabab…8b3ebacked SportsBetExpert25c137$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.75850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ad4…1b1cbacked LAG Gaming75c137$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick51cpaid-78.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5337…222bbacked SportsBetExpert62c133.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5112452.4%65 W · 59 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked SportsBetExpert71c131.49$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3742149.6%209 W · 212 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeba…9ff9backed LAG Gaming17c128$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.763444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4521…4789backed LAG Gaming71c127$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.17771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+41.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x190a…03a0backed SportsBetExpert27c127$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed LAG Gaming19c123.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4539239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed LAG Gaming40c117$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.870032%224 W · 476 L-45.8wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1110…4f1dbacked SportsBetExpert68c115.35$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.941181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+29.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed LAG Gaming38c114.44$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.834,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked LAG Gaming72c113.14$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8214046.4%65 W · 75 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9501…a052backed LAG Gaming71c112.53$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.792339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07ac…e813backed LAG Gaming76c111$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.361030%3 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe7e0…a433backed SportsBetExpert39c110.26$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.266060%36 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed SportsBetExpert37c107.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7440247.8%192 W · 210 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8018…125dbacked SportsBetExpert29c107$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.971353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed LAG Gaming47c106.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5033553.4%179 W · 156 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf901…5f48backed LAG Gaming64c106.48$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.78444%37 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9fc…1221backed SportsBetExpert29c106$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.26560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+498%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed LAG Gaming14c103.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.86848.5%33 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20c8…932dbacked LAG Gaming58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed LAG Gaming11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121739.2%85 W · 132 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb6c…d38ebacked LAG Gaming63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.87940.5%32 W · 47 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed LAG Gaming36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3656738.8%220 W · 347 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked LAG Gaming27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2722647.3%107 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc995…2224backed LAG Gaming61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618644.2%38 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked LAG Gaming68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6817246.5%80 W · 92 L-16.9wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-20.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked SportsBetExpert39c99.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6124633.3%82 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca93…24efbacked LAG Gaming71c99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55dd…8a83backed LAG Gaming55c98.18$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked LAG Gaming50c96.94$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.821435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a9…f5dfbacked LAG Gaming72c96$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.121833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+86.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed LAG Gaming37c93.7$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.656,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fa6…035ebacked SportsBetExpert29c91$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed SportsBetExpert34c88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.891,08737.5%408 W · 679 L+33.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3404…0c6cbacked LAG Gaming71c87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.77757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…e913backed SportsBetExpert29c84$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.641947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.