Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe546672750517f62c45a5a00067481981e62b9c20fa8220203232c9dc8fd2093
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,668,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,995,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,668,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe339…e01bbacked No | 0c | 7,493,500$7,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,493.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f78…c406backed No | 0c | 2,900,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefcd…dd8bbacked No | 0c | 1,201,000$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa560…d83ebacked No | 0c | 1,130,000$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa122…cd50backed No | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf525…008ebacked No | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…b252backed No | 0c | 997,000$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2464…17ebbacked No | 0c | 997,000$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadd…e8bebacked No | 0c | 989,710$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb4…9e47backed No | 0c | 983,000$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…e0e4backed No | 0c | 647,600$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa119…0173backed No | 0c | 643,500$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb5…e794backed No | 0c | 600,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2446…261bbacked No | 0c | 546,210$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…9010backed No | 0c | 500,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…bc25backed No | 0c | 500,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63e7…8f59backed No | 0c | 498,000$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…307fbacked No | 0c | 498,000$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 0c | 457,614$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ba…51edbacked No | 0c | 433,000$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…0e7fbacked No | 0c | 432,000$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 18c | 415,883$73,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342,298.29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d3…4264backed No | 0c | 400,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf50d…ac2dbacked No | 0c | 398,000$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 47c | 387,000$183,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203,359.94 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…1693backed No | 0c | 338,760$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…8363backed No | 0c | 337,000$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 9c | 319,841$27,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292,110.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +304.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…bd60backed No | 0c | 303,964$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…4bbabacked No | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ec…14bcbacked No | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…c3dfbacked No | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e5…4bc8backed No | 0c | 299,000$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b83…b92bbacked No | 0c | 298,000$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…139dbacked No | 0c | 280,950$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb0…100ebacked No | 0c | 255,980$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 254,201$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3720…8cf9backed No | 0c | 249,000$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ff…1df4backed No | 0c | 247,000$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b7…74a8backed No | 0c | 242,510$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a6…2f3fbacked No | 0c | 240,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…218dbacked Yes | 18c | 238,142$42,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195,570.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 21cpaid | +296.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…4bd2backed No | 0c | 235,000$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe792…ffe4backed No | 63c | 229,187$143,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143,770.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…0098backed No | 0c | 228,500$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7b…9fd9backed No | 0c | 220,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…38c8backed No | 0c | 218,000$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb91…3fc9backed No | 0c | 212,570$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 21c | 209,797$44,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165,633.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…0381backed No | 0c | 206,000$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdb…e296backed No | 0c | 203,000$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…b62ebacked No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9f…a2cdbacked No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…d214backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…5a01backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5efe…94b2backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…8fb1backed No | 0c | 199,990$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…db5abacked No | 0c | 199,410$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd26a…37a2backed No | 0c | 199,000$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 24c | 183,751$43,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139,767.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…0c60backed No | 0c | 180,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 80c | 159,829$127,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127,578.51 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a91…ea4ebacked No | 0c | 159,000$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778d…1555backed No | 0c | 155,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cf…eeb3backed No | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…9a0fbacked No | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…77ccbacked No | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…c307backed No | 0c | 147,000$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc1…d972backed No | 0c | 146,000$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…689cbacked Yes | 22c | 141,095$31,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109,588.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…1198backed No | 0c | 139,000$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e2…90f0backed No | 0c | 134,000$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 10c | 129,516$13,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116,023.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…030bbacked No | 0c | 129,000$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137d…c181backed No | 0c | 125,955$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…0503backed No | 0c | 125,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e57…be7cbacked No | 0c | 124,719$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…0464backed No | 0c | 124,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…80fbbacked No | 0c | 123,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7916…97aebacked No | 0c | 122,990$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 14c | 122,014$17,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104,346.54 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 6c | 117,958$7,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110,611.71 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 0c | 117,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 42c | 116,842$49,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,288.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 22c | 114,325$25,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88,974.41 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0566…4c51backed No | 0c | 114,000$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa6…2036backed No | 0c | 113,600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…0f2ebacked No | 0c | 113,150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6efb…7bf2backed No | 0c | 113,000$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce1…dd66backed No | 0c | 111,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed No | 74c | 110,694$81,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81,425.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…1e59backed No | 0c | 110,340$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…90a6backed No | 0c | 110,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…da76backed No | 0c | 109,000$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 10c | 108,436$10,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97,446.17 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb96c…9ee1backed No | 0c | 105,230$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…931ebacked No | 0c | 105,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 59c | 103,901$60,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,020.27 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1936…175ebacked No | 0c | 100,670$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a37…6c95backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.