Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01278664ac467fcc2e4aba500b05f994787d34b873f2bff96c375a89f59bc983
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $256,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,209$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 12,408$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 6c | 9,342$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.08 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 1c | 6,684$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 1c | 6,529$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7264…8583backed Yes | 9c | 5,971$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.61 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 11cpaid | +115%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 11c | 5,622$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.03 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…e1ddbacked Yes | 2c | 5,550$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e78…56b0backed Yes | 10c | 3,979$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 3,795$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,560$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.16 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 50c | 3,103$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.28 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af7…9314backed Yes | 25c | 2,955$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.38 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 11c | 2,594$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 4c | 2,380$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes | 10c | 2,200$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,146$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d70…8af1backed Yes | 30c | 1,990$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,838$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.57 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…a1cfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,598$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.62 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,449$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cc…f0e4backed Yes | 12c | 1,280$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 16c | 1,270$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,264$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…506ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,232$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…6057backed Yes | 21c | 1,208$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…6b67backed Yes | 21c | 1,165$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd864…497ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,161$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,134$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…d176backed Yes | 11c | 1,121$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…c7a1backed Yes | 27c | 1,116$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.67 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked No | 36c | 1,090$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.29 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 6c | 1,041$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9a…6025backed Yes | 7c | 1,026$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c40…3d64backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 932.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 43c | 926$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.82 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 57c | 926$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.82 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…dbb2backed No | 75c | 878.91$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.92 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 9c | 847.47$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…d030backed Yes | 2c | 804.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 1c | 755.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175f…374cbacked Yes | 2c | 750$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -88%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 22c | 700.33$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.88 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 20c | 666.6$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.51 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…ae37backed Yes | 7c | 632.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +11.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 7c | 599.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 15c | 553.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…21fbbacked Yes | 21c | 536.91$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 4c | 534.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…3c4fbacked Yes | 8c | 504.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf792…d26cbacked Yes | 5c | 501.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 14c | 500.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…9375backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4803…6febbacked Yes | 38c | 495.28$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc150…a2f8backed Yes | 15c | 495.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.27per pick | 32cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 489.91$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.33 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes | 3c | 478.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes | 4c | 452.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb997…8734backed Yes | 16c | 451.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -85%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 22c | 450.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 444$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 5c | 441.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3674…2fc6backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 74c | 423.83$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98bf…c1d8backed No | 73c | 411.58$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x525f…b707backed Yes | 12c | 409.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 11c | 400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 15c | 384.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…4b06backed Yes | 8c | 373.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 8c | 369.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 20c | 363.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff5…461abacked Yes | 16c | 360.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 76c | 354$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 346.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…4fc8backed Yes | 26c | 346.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb48…4d59backed Yes | 9c | 338.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +424.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd096…2f6fbacked No | 12c | 336.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.72 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…57c2backed Yes | 31c | 325.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 16c | 321.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea76…884cbacked Yes | 9c | 301.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…67f2backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed No | 67c | 285.33$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.55 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…5ca4backed Yes | 9c | 277.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +120%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x504d…98dcbacked Yes | 7c | 267.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…e882backed Yes | 9c | 265.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 19c | 259.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…b051backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c1…9c76backed Yes | 24c | 253.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb794…42d8backed Yes | 27c | 249.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…958cbacked Yes | 9c | 246.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…4892backed Yes | 12c | 246.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fea…82f7backed Yes | 28c | 243.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 23c | 231.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?this page
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.