TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,166
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,658

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,166 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd426…334abacked No10c8,229$797 inLost-$796.9236227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No3c1,056$27 inLost-$27.415071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed No2c999.99$20 inLost-$2020239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked No12c860$103 inLost-$103.24027.5%11 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No12c847.3$102 inLost-$101.6834234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No9c592.63$55 inLost-$54.8916041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c573.03$25 inLost-$25.367135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b4…4d69backed No5c499.98$25 inLost-$253315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No5c450.24$23 inLost-$22.666813.2%9 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed No9c224.99$20 inLost-$20.251596.9%11 W · 148 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x296b…444dbacked No10c194.64$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc00d…a08ebacked No11c187.06$21 inLost-$20.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x753e…bd67backed No14c109.41$15 inLost-$15.42128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick19cpaid-8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No19c74.34$14 inLost-$14.1485725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.