Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd40a6538ed3246633c85163816f20d8143d137f49260543426bb50527d2c4c2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $577,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $535,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $577,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 409 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4be9…1442backed No | 22c | 45,000$9,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,899.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 80c | 32,169$25,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,435.45 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…6b8dbacked No | 21c | 32,146$6,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,707 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 61c | 13,106$7,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,117.76 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…ed4fbacked No | 12c | 12,589$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.49 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 72c | 12,541$9,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500.13 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef6…20dcbacked No | 9c | 11,851$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fc…9606backed No | 23c | 10,728$2,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,508.51 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe620…03acbacked No | 23c | 10,434$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3d…7ababacked No | 15c | 8,231$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…85cabacked No | 8c | 8,132$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 5c | 8,108$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.49 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 13c | 8,090$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.38 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 6c | 8,019$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.42 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…6559backed No | 51c | 6,422$3,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,291.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +693.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d92…d269backed No | 1c | 5,539$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc266…2f2fbacked No | 29c | 5,147$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.62 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…1441backed No | 8c | 5,106$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +629.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 77c | 5,000$3,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.38 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 2c | 4,805$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.43 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 11c | 4,763$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.01 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 76c | 4,680$3,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.74 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 20c | 4,465$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.98 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…b017backed Yes | 76c | 4,176$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.71 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 63c | 4,007$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.14 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…7060backed No | 11c | 3,945$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 62c | 3,902$2,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.85 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 7c | 3,765$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.83 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9863…5445backed No | 41c | 3,710$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 25cpaid | +379.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…bbd8backed Yes | 75c | 3,678$2,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.32 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 11c | 3,638$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.07 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1f…0568backed No | 11c | 3,570$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 3,296$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.94 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…6406backed No | 8c | 2,839$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da3…e410backed No | 8c | 2,839$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee6…bb35backed No | 24c | 2,782$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…3607backed No | 18c | 2,778$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 77c | 2,705$2,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.99 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4b…2b17backed No | 7c | 2,676$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x590d…0e0ebacked No | 9c | 2,600$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 2,505$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 17c | 2,492$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.04 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…7b96backed Yes | 79c | 2,341$1,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +83%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…68e0backed No | 22c | 2,203$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 2,185$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.1 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…2945backed No | 41c | 2,165$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.35 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,087$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x335b…92f6backed No | 10c | 2,079$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +371%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf614…fd8abacked No | 10c | 2,039$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 38c | 2,039$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked No | 6c | 2,037$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 6c | 2,008$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.68 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd6…6321backed No | 5c | 1,977$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…5cd0backed No | 11c | 1,977$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2943…9f72backed No | 5c | 1,888$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…4904backed No | 7c | 1,879$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 3c | 1,797$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 1,700$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…859bbacked No | 30c | 1,682$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…c5eebacked No | 14c | 1,635$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…f794backed No | 8c | 1,622$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.8 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 9c | 1,594$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.65 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa903…bcd2backed No | 13c | 1,587$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +145.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa316…d90ebacked No | 13c | 1,571$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…f60cbacked No | 9c | 1,520$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked No | 10c | 1,478$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.84 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…e440backed Yes | 66c | 1,433$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.82 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed No | 11c | 1,362$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 9c | 1,354$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.58 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb4…5740backed No | 15c | 1,352$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 3cpaid | +623.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 78c | 1,315$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.27 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…3f9bbacked No | 8c | 1,290$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a8…416cbacked No | 33c | 1,289$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.67 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc894…7cccbacked No | 11c | 1,285$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +178.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…8902backed No | 15c | 1,277$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…0627backed No | 9c | 1,257$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 12c | 1,252$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.52 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7743…868fbacked No | 13c | 1,114$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,114$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5df…9385backed No | 6c | 1,110$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +557.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43b…5913backed No | 19c | 1,026$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +282.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…edc5backed No | 14c | 999.95$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…ed1fbacked No | 8c | 968.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 7c | 929.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 16c | 895.46$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.41 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65fa…4398backed No | 13c | 891.36$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…d1e7backed Yes | 79c | 886.01$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.02 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed No | 14c | 875.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +70%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…dc4fbacked No | 14c | 861.56$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.35 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…cd27backed No | 7c | 850$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f1…248cbacked No | 24c | 824.64$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…85e8backed No | 28c | 799.96$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 19c | 786.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 12c | 767.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 766.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0872…95e6backed No | 15c | 738.72$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f99…fdd0backed No | 17c | 707.24$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…99f3backed No | 15c | 703.43$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 10c | 703.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…a868backed No | 10c | 700.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?this page
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.