TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd43b…5913

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
99
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 61 out of 100; worst Premier League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1952.6%10 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick30cpaid+282.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$257.58
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$134.13
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+2,368.9%+$4,500.92
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+1,022.4%+$1,022.43
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+2,072.3%+$1,512.77
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$525Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$975
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+256.6%+$1,796.12
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+168.6%+$505.69
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$26.19
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+69.1%+$69.05
All 19 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilobacked Moise Kouame · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$378.33
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouamebacked Moise Kouame · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$1,285.71
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolobacked Jannik Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$963Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$962.81
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovicbacked Casper Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+37%+$184.93
Roland Garros WTA: Eva Lys vs Sorana Cirsteabacked Sorana Cirstea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$719Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+35.4%+$254.47
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutetbacked Corentin Moutet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejobacked Cameron Norrie · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$493Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$493.06
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Emilio Navabacked Emilio Nava · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.83
Madrid Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Tommy Paulbacked Tommy Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$260.98
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmicbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$539Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$538.52
Madrid Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Lorenzo Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$105.43
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Sheltonbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$302.69
BMW Open: Alex Molcan vs Ben Sheltonbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$107.06
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcanbacked Denis Shapovalov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$292.44
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Sheltonbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+112.1%+$260.42
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolobacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$72.24
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Sheltonbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$65.77
All 17 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$107.32
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$359Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$259.77
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.7
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$118.19
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.06
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$88.36
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-04-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$403
Will Swansea City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+25%+$63.32
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-04-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-04-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.42
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$145.36
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$110
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 16 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$987Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+291.9%+$2,881.38
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$255.48
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.36
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$91.28
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.24
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$68.93
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$282.35
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+62.4%+$91.98
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.52
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+203%+$92.09
All 11 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+47.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Mls Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+203%+$25.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,461Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,460.85
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.