Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,793,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,342,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,793,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,605 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ff3…981cbacked No | 0c | 500,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 19cpaid | +487.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 51c | 220,926$112,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108,362.97 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 59c | 186,169$110,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,123.98 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb3…8ff8backed No | 0c | 130,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed No | 54c | 129,845$69,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,989.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 48c | 122,666$58,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,150.45 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 52c | 114,261$59,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,531.23 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7158…5439backed No | 54c | 113,769$61,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,877.06 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.5wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…b99abacked No | 0c | 108,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +277.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x585a…26ecbacked No | 0c | 102,718$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 59c | 94,883$55,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,142.07 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 45c | 79,769$35,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,237 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 44c | 70,522$30,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,908.9 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 45c | 70,194$31,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,446.45 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 38c | 68,305$26,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,035.84 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 50c | 64,645$32,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,347.94 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 50c | 61,579$30,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,095.75 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…cdcbbacked No | 45c | 60,901$27,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,205.27 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 64c | 58,895$37,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,070.62 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f0…dd88backed No | 0c | 55,932$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 49c | 53,681$26,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,561.66 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…8708backed No | 2c | 52,676$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6087…900cbacked No | 0c | 52,105$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb89…8803backed No | 64c | 50,049$31,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,928.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…7759backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 50c | 43,562$21,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,841.82 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 45c | 42,390$19,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,257.49 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…b0a2backed Yes | 36c | 41,655$14,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,659.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…0ac8backed Yes | 52c | 40,798$21,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,704.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +94%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 51c | 40,653$20,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,708.96 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cce…5c11backed No | 53c | 39,064$20,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,875 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 50c | 37,968$19,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,819.27 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 47c | 37,765$17,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,190.97 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…1310backed No | 0c | 37,242$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44de…9c08backed Yes | 47c | 35,348$16,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,590.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 43c | 34,881$14,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,005.54 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 39c | 34,550$13,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,053.76 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 60c | 33,187$19,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,346.91 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…2647backed No | 43c | 31,306$13,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,598.98 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb3…e6a6backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 41c | 29,843$12,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,348.31 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 51c | 29,570$15,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,155.2 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 43c | 28,289$12,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,089.68 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 9c | 26,526$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328.93 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04cd…7122backed Yes | 49c | 26,184$12,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,362.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 52c | 25,317$13,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,242.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd527…ae2ebacked No | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…adb6backed No | 50c | 24,714$12,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,316.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 44c | 24,202$10,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,670.04 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 49c | 23,272$11,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,808.3 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 59c | 22,836$13,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,328.53 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 41c | 22,597$9,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,240.31 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…011ebacked No | 49c | 22,407$10,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,984 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e8…193fbacked No | 0c | 22,120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 44c | 21,731$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,130.56 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 41c | 21,270$8,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,721.16 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc823…a910backed Yes | 47c | 21,090$9,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,177.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed No | 49c | 20,873$10,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,244.39 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 55c | 20,862$11,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,370.15 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…98c7backed No | 62c | 20,768$12,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,880 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x10e4…b019backed Yes | 60c | 20,333$12,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,203.63 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +7.8wins | +0.39per pick | 46cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xccef…02dbbacked Yes | 66c | 20,295$13,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,819.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd023…bd46backed No | 0c | 20,190$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…63c7backed Yes | 50c | 20,000$9,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,023.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4000…8df9backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 44c | 20,000$8,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,750 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc106…2a44backed No | 0c | 19,692$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 33c | 19,678$6,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,184.55 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 69c | 19,555$13,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,113.06 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked No | 50c | 19,300$9,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,699.77 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x07fc…0b5ebacked No | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe541…d45dbacked Yes | 47c | 19,000$8,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,069.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…fccdbacked Yes | 55c | 18,918$10,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,534.81 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed No | 45c | 18,609$8,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,289.56 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 60c | 18,444$11,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,433.32 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…80d0backed Yes | 53c | 18,323$9,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,613.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 20cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…7854backed No | 0c | 17,680$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89db…556bbacked No | 0c | 17,462$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +2,141%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 52c | 17,449$9,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,421.09 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x803d…135dbacked No | 62c | 17,302$10,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,727.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ad…a55cbacked No | 59c | 17,250$10,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,104.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…9969backed Yes | 54c | 16,683$9,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,676.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 77c | 16,681$12,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,890.61 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 54c | 16,635$8,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,982.99 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 54c | 16,388$8,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,558.28 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 45c | 16,311$7,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,042.33 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 51c | 16,268$8,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,025.1 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 45c | 16,123$7,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,323.84 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…8faabacked Yes | 36c | 15,700$5,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,048 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 51c | 15,495$7,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,881.26 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 52c | 15,403$8,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,362.65 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…00f6backed Yes | 47c | 15,300$7,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,127.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…a734backed No | 0c | 14,900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked No | 45c | 14,564$6,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,581.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed No | 0c | 14,474$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e9…18a6backed No | 66c | 14,454$9,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,588.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 56c | 14,106$7,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,221.98 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.