Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c5701bcde0b8fb7d7f48c8e9d20245a6caa58c61a77f981fad98f2bfa0b1bc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,696,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,253,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,696,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 5,098 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e9c…6421backed No | 0c | 11,778,649$21,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,344.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 1c | 5,544,015$46,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,552.59 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed No | 0c | 4,000,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed No | 0c | 3,644,991$16,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,734.97 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 0c | 3,618,574$15,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,156.93 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x183d…1270backed No | 0c | 3,445,060$10,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,780.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…42e0backed No | 0c | 3,020,338$8,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,967.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…c3e0backed No | 1c | 2,434,679$26,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,309.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked No | 0c | 2,340,192$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340.19 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54b…ce2dbacked No | 0c | 1,650,261$4,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,321.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked No | 0c | 1,510,673$5,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,615.55 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2d…1617backed No | 0c | 1,500,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…bc1ebacked No | 1c | 1,376,526$9,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,298.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…507abacked No | 0c | 1,350,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 1c | 1,268,000$13,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,500.64 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cce…5c11backed No | 1c | 1,253,722$6,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,268.61 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c75…3c94backed No | 1c | 1,175,000$6,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,119.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…2211backed No | 0c | 1,112,000$4,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,985.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb89…8803backed No | 0c | 1,079,753$4,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,519.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x284b…8278backed No | 0c | 1,024,280$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked No | 0c | 1,008,039$4,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,641.64 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac47…d234backed No | 0c | 955,577$4,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,038 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefd…4f2abacked No | 1c | 953,275$5,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,286.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.55per pick | 17cpaid | +242.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x711b…475fbacked No | 0c | 762,404$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6803backed No | 0c | 731,722$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 1c | 708,163$4,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,985.37 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 48c | 588,819$282,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306,591.5 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5387…f5eabacked No | 1c | 571,180$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5160…b803backed No | 0c | 564,463$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.99 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…a4dcbacked No | 0c | 501,590$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b2…f7a2backed No | 1c | 501,247$3,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,619.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0267backed No | 0c | 501,002$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 4c | 481,162$17,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463,474.44 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…d29dbacked No | 0c | 477,553$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…be95backed Yes | 3c | 477,544$13,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464,341.66 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +260.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c90…79f4backed No | 1c | 469,740$3,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,598.93 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6855…655abacked Yes | 4c | 466,604$17,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448,617.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,494.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…8917backed No | 1c | 462,798$4,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,758.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1077…c9f1backed No | 0c | 451,525$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa6…30febacked Yes | 7c | 438,569$30,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407,869.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +680.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…f9f2backed No | 0c | 432,572$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…740abacked Yes | 45c | 429,144$191,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237,965.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 62c | 421,914$259,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161,979.26 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…0d99backed No | 0c | 419,475$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 15c | 412,589$62,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350,135.03 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 4c | 410,112$16,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393,521.63 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe52…7031backed No | 0c | 408,745$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 1c | 404,961$5,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,537.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 0c | 400,500$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…82babacked No | 2c | 400,319$8,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,268.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1698…1829backed No | 0c | 398,710$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 79c | 390,965$307,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83,929.62 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb41…6c87backed No | 0c | 375,152$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 2c | 355,555$6,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348,701.72 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb864…350dbacked No | 0c | 355,326$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5e…1c12backed No | 0c | 353,030$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 6c | 352,409$22,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,737.79 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…59d5backed No | 0c | 332,826$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…e2abbacked No | 0c | 331,000$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +270.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb13…7d2ebacked No | 0c | 325,150$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd0…c8d9backed No | 0c | 300,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d9…b420backed No | 0c | 300,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4295…fdb1backed No | 0c | 299,764$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c56…6316backed No | 0c | 297,830$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f58…c116backed No | 0c | 296,575$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…2673backed No | 1c | 292,092$1,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,821.01 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.37per pick | 32cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 72c | 291,319$210,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,596.93 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…5ec9backed No | 0c | 289,768$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked No | 0c | 285,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e4…572bbacked No | 0c | 283,800$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 68c | 272,482$185,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87,065.09 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba8…2b0dbacked No | 0c | 271,993$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…c312backed No | 0c | 271,873$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…3581backed No | 0c | 260,437$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df9…be65backed No | 0c | 260,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 0c | 257,200$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.55 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 1c | 254,960$3,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,663.73 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked No | 0c | 254,487$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.66 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986f…0ab3backed No | 0c | 252,372$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…2ce5backed No | 0c | 250,784$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b8…3480backed No | 0c | 249,091$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 247,396$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.4 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked No | 0c | 244,786$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.74 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed No | 0c | 241,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 80c | 240,674$192,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,522.07 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…f7e1backed No | 0c | 236,240$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9f…47aabacked No | 0c | 233,941$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7ec8backed No | 0c | 232,774$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.53 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…d010backed Yes | 6c | 229,293$14,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214,764.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 13cpaid | +425%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb785…b54abacked No | 1c | 228,783$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee1…1a96backed No | 0c | 220,393$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2054…ee20backed No | 0c | 217,891$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057f…94a3backed No | 0c | 214,576$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.14 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 51c | 214,510$110,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104,045.23 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52a…cc6abacked No | 0c | 211,000$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8039…7421backed Yes | 7c | 206,825$13,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192,925.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,388%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…9b14backed No | 0c | 205,750$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…64ebbacked No | 1c | 204,184$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…95fbbacked No | 0c | 200,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb005…e690backed No | 0c | 198,927$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.