Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ccff8c606ad71080c7611d28f1593a528a8ca6c11c1fb63bfa24a7eb2ad30d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,113,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,080,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,113,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,423 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 27c | 154,445$41,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,492.92 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 73c | 146,067$106,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,921.95 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…914abacked No | 0c | 126,997$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 1cpaid | +2,400.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 25c | 60,056$14,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,969.53 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed18…6acfbacked No | 11c | 51,423$5,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,906.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 18c | 50,735$9,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,248.02 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 27c | 47,191$12,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,858.57 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed No | 28c | 44,276$12,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,425.19 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 4c | 40,599$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,592.26 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 28c | 37,865$10,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,648.58 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b91…e572backed Yes | 73c | 29,999$22,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,980.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…0d9abacked Yes | 72c | 26,507$19,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,501.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +804.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6087…900cbacked No | 0c | 22,194$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 17c | 21,694$3,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,693.92 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7158…5439backed No | 23c | 21,322$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.5wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 28c | 20,314$5,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,751.53 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…08bcbacked Yes | 74c | 20,000$14,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 73c | 20,000$14,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,373.53 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 18c | 18,874$3,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,328.08 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…1fcabacked Yes | 79c | 18,633$14,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,950.93 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes | 79c | 18,406$14,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,878.14 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…3101backed Yes | 78c | 18,020$13,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,027.81 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…a40fbacked No | 27c | 17,455$4,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,724.92 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 74c | 17,395$12,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,554.86 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 26c | 17,219$4,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,476.89 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…8708backed No | 8c | 15,989$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a82backed Yes | 75c | 15,721$11,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,967.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…0e8bbacked Yes | 70c | 15,000$10,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,449.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 73c | 14,358$10,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,829.78 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 25c | 14,149$3,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,557.97 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 74c | 14,066$10,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,638.49 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 70c | 14,031$9,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,276.15 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 75c | 13,899$10,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,514.98 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 74c | 13,639$10,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,576.48 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…8d4ebacked Yes | 74c | 12,031$8,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,170.95 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -56%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x627f…06dcbacked Yes | 72c | 12,023$8,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,359.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…8faabacked Yes | 70c | 12,000$8,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,599.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 24c | 11,668$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.01 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 74c | 11,224$8,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880.28 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…edfabacked Yes | 72c | 10,856$7,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,035.81 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +50%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed No | 28c | 10,691$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 27c | 10,324$2,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,747.69 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5afe…af69backed Yes | 77c | 10,268$7,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,364.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked No | 24c | 10,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 70c | 9,991$6,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,997.39 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 80c | 9,654$7,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.2 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…7774backed Yes | 71c | 9,448$6,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,762.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 19c | 9,207$1,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.27 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7d…54bfbacked Yes | 73c | 9,000$6,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,389.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…e4edbacked Yes | 75c | 8,951$6,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 17c | 8,773$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.69 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…70b0backed No | 24c | 8,753$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.33 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked No | 24c | 8,750$2,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 16cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…43c1backed Yes | 70c | 8,000$5,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04cd…7122backed Yes | 75c | 8,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked No | 26c | 7,632$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.4 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 78c | 7,500$5,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.38 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3b04…9f95backed No | 22c | 7,458$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…cef3backed Yes | 72c | 7,298$5,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,074.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…89f6backed No | 28c | 7,283$2,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,056.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 24c | 7,191$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.68 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 28c | 7,157$2,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.9 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…aa3cbacked Yes | 71c | 7,123$5,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,078.89 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…11e3backed Yes | 71c | 7,084$5,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,071.64 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3115…61d5backed Yes | 71c | 7,042$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,042.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked No | 28c | 7,000$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…d772backed Yes | 76c | 7,000$5,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x709e…027dbacked Yes | 75c | 6,686$5,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd12c…f2d4backed Yes | 76c | 6,600$5,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ae…4879backed No | 1c | 6,382$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…864bbacked Yes | 73c | 6,012$4,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 59cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 3c | 5,915$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.94 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 73c | 5,898$4,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.39 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d8…84f4backed No | 29c | 5,840$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…9452backed Yes | 69c | 5,800$4,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5b…a790backed No | 28c | 5,731$1,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.03 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 74c | 5,717$4,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.45 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 75c | 5,400$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 28c | 5,315$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.86 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Yes | 71c | 5,300$3,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 76c | 5,262$3,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.88 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2e77…6762backed Yes | 68c | 5,148$3,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.24 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…4594backed Yes | 77c | 5,140$3,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea2…7e4cbacked No | 28c | 5,105$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked Yes | 71c | 5,071$3,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.61 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…ad00backed Yes | 70c | 5,054$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c8…b9e6backed Yes | 74c | 5,000$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…1338backed Yes | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…2068backed Yes | 72c | 4,880$3,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffb…b2f8backed Yes | 73c | 4,777$3,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +235.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 78c | 4,721$3,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.96 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af0…5816backed No | 27c | 4,639$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.39 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 74c | 4,547$3,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.73 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 25c | 4,500$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.97 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 69c | 4,500$3,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.99 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…16f6backed Yes | 76c | 4,367$3,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.72 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc81…61a5backed No | 30c | 4,241$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 75c | 4,107$3,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.79 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.