Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74d513ded76c21815373eae49004f36291d958b034087e7bb3669f156e3d116e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,662,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,662,152 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 1c | 545,565$7,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,581.72 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 5c | 314,164$14,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,842.03 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 9c | 270,939$24,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,289.29 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…fdf3backed Yes | 2c | 201,405$3,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,274.19 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…4950backed Yes | 20c | 188,319$37,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,590.93 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 32cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 3c | 149,581$5,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,222.07 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5845…7903backed Yes | 1c | 142,577$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…7271backed Yes | 2c | 122,089$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…f780backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…ed58backed Yes | 4c | 97,675$3,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,695.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 7c | 87,518$5,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,942.4 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe5…7f3dbacked Yes | 1c | 82,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 71,681$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f92…a3c3backed Yes | 2c | 66,597$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 8c | 65,024$5,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,067.52 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 0c | 52,859$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.51 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 3c | 51,818$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.14 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a9…fc3fbacked Yes | 0c | 51,769$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec80…2cd7backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 17c | 42,679$7,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,250.56 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…c6cbbacked Yes | 2c | 40,343$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 7c | 40,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e9…9251backed Yes | 0c | 39,158$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 32,100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 31,945$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.24 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 5c | 30,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 5c | 30,000$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.47 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x594a…906ebacked Yes | 1c | 28,400$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.34 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ff…e809backed Yes | 2c | 26,457$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…6884backed Yes | 1c | 25,617$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…0f94backed Yes | 8c | 24,917$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…02c5backed Yes | 21c | 23,421$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes | 1c | 23,400$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 5c | 23,000$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.99 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…aad0backed Yes | 2c | 22,947$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 1c | 21,594$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.16 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes | 12c | 19,454$2,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.53 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…f4e0backed Yes | 21c | 19,328$4,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,037.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 18,968$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.73 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8372…5223backed Yes | 8c | 18,500$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 18c | 17,991$3,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,150.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…1b42backed Yes | 0c | 17,885$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 7c | 16,965$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.72 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9577…e92cbacked Yes | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…0d19backed Yes | 15c | 16,250$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes | 0c | 16,014$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…2d1cbacked Yes | 6c | 15,604$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9c…908abacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +172.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…2f03backed Yes | 5c | 14,642$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Yes | 4c | 14,551$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.02 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…d706backed Yes | 0c | 14,253$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 4c | 13,760$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.89 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 80c | 13,723$10,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,813.05 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd742…79e4backed Yes | 4c | 13,320$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bee…444fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,092$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 13,088$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,325.18 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 12,539$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.76 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c8…07bcbacked Yes | 4c | 12,370$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…0c2abacked Yes | 2c | 12,132$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.8 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x951e…a051backed Yes | 1c | 11,134$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd133…972cbacked Yes | 15c | 11,078$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.6 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb7…8ef9backed Yes | 9c | 10,966$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7586…3beabacked Yes | 2c | 10,565$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f8…085dbacked Yes | 3c | 10,553$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc7…ac54backed Yes | 10c | 10,472$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 10,287$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.48 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x869c…63d5backed Yes | 5c | 10,132$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 2c | 9,954$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.16 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1f…fe24backed Yes | 15c | 9,629$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 9,300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3455…ddccbacked Yes | 2c | 9,015$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…edfabacked No | 77c | 8,745$6,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,990.19 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +50%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x512e…4f1bbacked Yes | 13c | 8,711$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…b825backed Yes | 5c | 8,367$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 8,352$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.63 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,337$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…440ebacked No | 79c | 8,258$6,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 9c | 8,132$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.79 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 4c | 8,123$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe570…686fbacked Yes | 3c | 8,036$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…c691backed Yes | 1c | 8,014$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…68bfbacked Yes | 2c | 7,963$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52ad…80adbacked Yes | 3c | 7,528$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa12e…7be9backed Yes | 7c | 7,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b18ebacked Yes | 14c | 7,402$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c69…f2d9backed Yes | 7c | 7,214$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.24 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330a…2939backed Yes | 0c | 7,085$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff8…973dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,985$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…e1fbbacked Yes | 1c | 6,982$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2479…fb6fbacked Yes | 4c | 6,924$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.3 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…cc01backed Yes | 3c | 6,862$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2747…8d20backed Yes | 1c | 6,806$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf732…c98cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,787$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 4c | 6,786$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…5923backed Yes | 8c | 6,781$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.65 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +204.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…b195backed Yes | 6c | 6,569$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 15c | 6,494$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.79 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2053…1eedbacked Yes | 16c | 6,337$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.