TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x566a…0d19

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
59
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Music, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Music at 52 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2516%4 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$643Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$643
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$277.61
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.34
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.66
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.92
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.36
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.81
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.96
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$255.41
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+47.7%+$238.66
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$2,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$2,500
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$496Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$495.85
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$500
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+455.6%+$6,377.78
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,387Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+405.1%+$5,619.5
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$500
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$2,354Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$2,353.86
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,954Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$1,954.2
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,698Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$1,698
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,242Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$1,242
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$120
All 25 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.13
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51.52
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.11
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$488.24
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$139.54
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.54
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+271.3%+$271.33
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.6
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+69.7%+$209.19
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
All 17 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+405.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stagebacked Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.5
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winnerbacked GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$8
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitalsbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$14.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win on 2026-03-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Rockets (-4.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.06
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.