TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,810,054
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,944,803

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,810,054 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa579…aad0backed Yes1c834,984$5,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,746.818610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes2c587,781$9,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,646.8613823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes2c315,647$6,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,065.99456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33ac…9334backed Yes5c299,999$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,999.97933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+95.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed Yes4c235,432$10,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,107.44633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x313d…4b1abacked Yes14c227,514$31,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,802.730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb654…e210backed Yes2c199,881$3,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,498.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b02…4991backed Yes7c188,889$13,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,030.472917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes4c149,199$5,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,317.862524%6 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes2c133,313$2,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.72218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9abe…70b7backed Yes6c121,079$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,500616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes18c115,400$20,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,670.143823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67a9…c2b5backed Yes2c111,493$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf784…ab48backed Yes0c110,187$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.194528.9%13 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes2c108,641$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8401915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes5c102,250$5,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3856132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes1c100,907$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188.71180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc97b…47e5backed Yes4c100,432$3,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,636.765433.3%18 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Yes9c95,700$8,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,160.83915.4%6 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4d85…97e9backed Yes5c92,471$4,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,609.845728.1%16 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes3c91,453$3,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,098.3419119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes2c89,847$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,683.01430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes1c89,800$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.82512%3 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid+116.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b8…efd8backed Yes11c89,642$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+27.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd387…a51abacked Yes1c84,564$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.14616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick3cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes11c84,447$9,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,648.814039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes2c77,032$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.748818.2%16 W · 72 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c8b…23debacked Yes7c76,898$5,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,447.49666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.48per pick19cpaid+216%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes0c76,056$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.331910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+73.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6e…8931backed Yes2c75,979$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.03130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes1c75,685$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.61220%0 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c80…02c3backed Yes4c72,180$3,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,043.871546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes1c70,257$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.693315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb6…c7f1backed Yes1c67,000$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95690%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd86…f2c8backed Yes2c63,084$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.99119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-57.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3832…1527backed Yes2c62,000$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30270%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes4c57,372$2,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,181.859736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Yes2c56,637$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.68200%0 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d90…0b91backed Yes6c54,575$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes2c54,500$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9448125.9%21 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb54…5202backed Yes4c54,412$2,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,185.04714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick5cpaid-24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6016…4f4abacked Yes0c53,770$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1913…b494backed Yes14c52,858$7,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,437.411233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes9c51,911$4,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,513.593917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c4e…456bbacked Yes5c50,259$2,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,659.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes4c50,000$1,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,930.644835.4%17 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc969…a2adbacked Yes22c46,810$10,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,408.641145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+64.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09d3…4e84backed Yes12c46,404$5,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,511.15633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+141.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bdf…0ec1backed Yes4c45,448$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.56425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa43a…94b2backed Yes3c44,357$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1341910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes8c44,262$3,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,421.58827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb014…b3fabacked Yes3c41,090$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.8450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+130.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba4c…6110backed Yes2c39,912$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cef…3bd1backed Yes13c37,534$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca38…c70ebacked Yes2c36,258$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.71110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes6c35,731$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,158.7521521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5136…d89dbacked Yes2c35,091$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d2…3a22backed Yes1c33,467$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.951346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+177.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88e0…58fbbacked Yes0c33,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83f8…d9f1backed Yes2c32,052$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes5c31,377$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.452828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea3…f072backed Yes1c30,318$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.7750%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f5…acb3backed Yes1c30,224$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec7…35c0backed Yes6c30,000$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.03875%6 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+123.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfac4…448dbacked Yes5c29,979$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick6cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d5…37eebacked Yes2c29,355$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3261…b55bbacked Yes10c28,955$2,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,82930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c6…6ef6backed Yes7c28,400$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3020…58f9backed Yes5c28,386$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.61540%6 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x607f…592cbacked Yes5c27,283$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.41per pick21cpaid+162.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes4c27,239$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8602…2fa2backed Yes6c26,714$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8f2…f661backed Yes1c26,274$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc622…bbedbacked Yes6c26,175$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666850%4 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+378.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes2c26,100$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64216417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes2c25,955$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.4510313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be2…5fa6backed Yes1c25,955$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.73120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a8…c31fbacked Yes16c25,540$4,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,180.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes9c25,175$2,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,210.7342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb46…7bb9backed Yes0c25,103$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fc8…7f4bbacked Yes4c25,035$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.262119%4 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-50.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f09…2848backed Yes3c24,960$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7395437%20 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes11c24,739$2,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,714.2512038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes9c24,497$2,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.5344224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Yes17c24,200$4,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,155.94837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f8d…f735backed Yes1c24,000$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14470%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d22…7049backed Yes1c23,860$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xccb4…9049backed Yes13c23,743$2,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,99010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes19c23,740$4,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,504.6942738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b19…34cbbacked Yes7c23,208$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc4…e5c3backed Yes6c22,960$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.452540%10 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-4.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdec7…f536backed Yes15c22,885$3,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,474.033438.2%13 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3526…aababacked Yes17c22,709$3,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,869.14425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+52.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes4c22,420$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.4142120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb54…86bebacked Yes3c22,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6801216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes2c22,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39013829%40 W · 98 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+7.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee9…56f5backed Yes1c21,938$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.64137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-83.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b49…178dbacked Yes0c21,439$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.72175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-72%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes3c21,111$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.871128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.