Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1c67f75aac5b10dc28f1a2fbb79b079fc7f7320abfbd6a950a50c372979569b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,810,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,944,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,810,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 834,984$5,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,746.81 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 2c | 587,781$9,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,646.86 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 2c | 315,647$6,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,065.99 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…9334backed Yes | 5c | 299,999$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,999.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…cc80backed Yes | 4c | 235,432$10,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,107.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…4b1abacked Yes | 14c | 227,514$31,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,802.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb654…e210backed Yes | 2c | 199,881$3,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,498.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 7c | 188,889$13,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,030.47 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes | 4c | 149,199$5,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,317.86 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 2c | 133,313$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,582.7 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9abe…70b7backed Yes | 6c | 121,079$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 18c | 115,400$20,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,670.14 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c2b5backed Yes | 2c | 111,493$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed Yes | 0c | 110,187$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.19 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes | 2c | 108,641$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 5c | 102,250$5,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,385 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes | 1c | 100,907$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.71 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 4c | 100,432$3,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,636.76 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed Yes | 9c | 95,700$8,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,160.8 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed Yes | 5c | 92,471$4,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,609.84 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 3c | 91,453$3,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,098.34 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 2c | 89,847$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.01 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 89,800$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.8 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b8…efd8backed Yes | 11c | 89,642$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…a51abacked Yes | 1c | 84,564$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 3cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 11c | 84,447$9,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,648.8 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 2c | 77,032$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.74 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8b…23debacked Yes | 7c | 76,898$5,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,447.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +216%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 0c | 76,056$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.33 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6e…8931backed Yes | 2c | 75,979$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.03 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 75,685$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.61 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…02c3backed Yes | 4c | 72,180$3,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,043.87 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 1c | 70,257$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.69 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb6…c7f1backed Yes | 1c | 67,000$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd86…f2c8backed Yes | 2c | 63,084$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…1527backed Yes | 2c | 62,000$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 4c | 57,372$2,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.85 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…6a46backed Yes | 2c | 56,637$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.68 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d90…0b91backed Yes | 6c | 54,575$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 2c | 54,500$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb54…5202backed Yes | 4c | 54,412$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…4f4abacked Yes | 0c | 53,770$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1913…b494backed Yes | 14c | 52,858$7,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,437.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 9c | 51,911$4,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,513.59 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4e…456bbacked Yes | 5c | 50,259$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 4c | 50,000$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.64 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…a2adbacked Yes | 22c | 46,810$10,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,408.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…4e84backed Yes | 12c | 46,404$5,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,511.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdf…0ec1backed Yes | 4c | 45,448$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed Yes | 3c | 44,357$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 8c | 44,262$3,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,421.58 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb014…b3fabacked Yes | 3c | 41,090$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…6110backed Yes | 2c | 39,912$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cef…3bd1backed Yes | 13c | 37,534$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…c70ebacked Yes | 2c | 36,258$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.71 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 6c | 35,731$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,158.75 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…d89dbacked Yes | 2c | 35,091$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d2…3a22backed Yes | 1c | 33,467$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +177.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…58fbbacked Yes | 0c | 33,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f8…d9f1backed Yes | 2c | 32,052$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 5c | 31,377$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.45 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea3…f072backed Yes | 1c | 30,318$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…acb3backed Yes | 1c | 30,224$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec7…35c0backed Yes | 6c | 30,000$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…448dbacked Yes | 5c | 29,979$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d5…37eebacked Yes | 2c | 29,355$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3261…b55bbacked Yes | 10c | 28,955$2,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,829 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c6…6ef6backed Yes | 7c | 28,400$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…58f9backed Yes | 5c | 28,386$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x607f…592cbacked Yes | 5c | 27,283$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 21cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 4c | 27,239$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8602…2fa2backed Yes | 6c | 26,714$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…f661backed Yes | 1c | 26,274$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…bbedbacked Yes | 6c | 26,175$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +378.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 2c | 26,100$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 2c | 25,955$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.45 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…5fa6backed Yes | 1c | 25,955$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.73 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a8…c31fbacked Yes | 16c | 25,540$4,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,180.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 25,175$2,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,210.73 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…7bb9backed Yes | 0c | 25,103$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc8…7f4bbacked Yes | 4c | 25,035$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.26 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 3c | 24,960$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 11c | 24,739$2,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,714.25 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 9c | 24,497$2,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,232.53 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1d…0c53backed Yes | 17c | 24,200$4,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,155.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8d…f735backed Yes | 1c | 24,000$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…7049backed Yes | 1c | 23,860$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb4…9049backed Yes | 13c | 23,743$2,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,990 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 19c | 23,740$4,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,504.69 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…34cbbacked Yes | 7c | 23,208$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc4…e5c3backed Yes | 6c | 22,960$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.45 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed Yes | 15c | 22,885$3,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,474.03 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…aababacked Yes | 17c | 22,709$3,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,869.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 22,420$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.41 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb54…86bebacked Yes | 3c | 22,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 2c | 22,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…56f5backed Yes | 1c | 21,938$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.64 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,439$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -72%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 3c | 21,111$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.87 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.