TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,821,142
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,149,772

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,821,142 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 316 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa579…aad0backed Yes1c381,037$1,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.768610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa206…2cadbacked Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-73.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes1c151,629$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4406132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes1c101,243$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.527311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes1c99,999$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.99430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02f0…6122backed Yes1c92,695$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.4730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes1c88,647$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.77456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c76,904$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.5219119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c7…85c1backed Yes1c70,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c60,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1107618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x903f…de5fbacked Yes3c57,792$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.7950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c20…b671backed Yes2c57,523$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986e…0b84backed Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd545…4084backed Yes1c43,087$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes0c37,986$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7240%0 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01d9…593abacked Yes1c37,583$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.611010%1 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick3cpaid+819.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes1c36,102$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.27412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb21…65a0backed Yes1c34,998$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes2c32,979$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes3c32,554$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.3133337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes1c29,018$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.243010%3 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes2c28,800$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.1370%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba4…7b7ebacked Yes4c28,518$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5156…84c1backed Yes1c28,386$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes1c28,155$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.17180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c27,608$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.4143212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes4c25,475$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.66220%0 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c23,400$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1438817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b3a…8c9dbacked Yes1c22,993$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.39922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes1c20,237$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5716417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cf4…f505backed Yes1c19,084$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c10…7a35backed Yes1c17,831$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes1c17,629$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.253315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x658f…cc25backed Yes1c16,808$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes1c16,654$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.582231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe815…60afbacked Yes1c16,499$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbcf…8bb4backed Yes1c16,387$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202020%4 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes1c15,091$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16618929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes1c15,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75326.3%2 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-81.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc940…02d2backed Yes2c14,932$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.66110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes3c14,858$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.1615541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdabe…69f6backed Yes1c14,766$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.27270%0 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b46…48fcbacked Yes1c14,286$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c24…32d6backed Yes1c14,277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf681…f265backed Yes1c13,587$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.11425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98bf…c046backed Yes1c13,500$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147166.3%1 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-84.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8284…86f0backed Yes7c12,905$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.4150%0 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcae5…6e29backed Yes2c12,775$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.13238.7%2 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+197.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa962…fe4abacked Yes1c12,390$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b7d…d4b8backed Yes1c12,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x412b…85b2backed Yes1c11,388$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8150…d03fbacked Yes3c10,439$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2991136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes3c10,026$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.756726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes1c9,142$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.98468.7%4 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes1c8,914$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.221526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-40.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bea…658fbacked Yes1c8,525$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae37…67edbacked Yes1c8,317$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick18cpaid+4.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes1c8,303$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.82260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca6…384ebacked Yes1c8,189$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.27166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb003…adf5backed Yes10c7,897$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes1c7,722$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.393925.6%10 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb543…9783backed Yes1c7,693$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d6c…0a9cbacked Yes1c7,692$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes4c7,664$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.619739.1%77 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x190f…01f3backed Yes1c7,455$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.73728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f20…5d9bbacked Yes1c7,170$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.314010%4 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacad…50b4backed Yes3c6,619$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd00a…6616backed Yes1c6,577$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-50.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa91d…8d8bbacked Yes1c6,539$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad19…8e03backed Yes1c6,532$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca38…c70ebacked Yes4c6,210$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.32110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…55dfbacked Yes3c6,012$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.275040%20 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes1c6,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498920.2%18 W · 71 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4006…9f86backed Yes1c6,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3670%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa89a…058abacked Yes1c6,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd02e…be0abacked Yes1c5,953$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab5a…177bbacked Yes1c5,900$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes6c5,630$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.48362.8%1 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-89.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x852a…5cc3backed Yes1c5,577$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7790%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b17…3117backed Yes7c5,425$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3020…58f9backed Yes6c5,375$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001540%6 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes1c5,350$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.15600%0 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e81…5599backed Yes1c5,349$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.645418.5%10 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes2c5,300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.94720%0 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes6c5,300$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3183844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01d1…12a4backed Yes8c5,296$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005038%19 W · 31 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+99.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0431…fcb4backed Yes1c5,069$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.73140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1819…6cbdbacked Yes2c5,043$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-60.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ac…a9c9backed Yes1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45437%3 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-82.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x189a…198cbacked Yes1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe570…686fbacked Yes1c5,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1665…27b7backed Yes1c4,966$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes2c4,959$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002055%11 W · 9 L+4.7wins+0.24per pick31cpaid+39.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xfc27…2219backed Yes1c4,700$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes4c4,506$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.758515.3%13 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes1c4,500$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0490…2a0dbacked Yes5c4,497$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.853119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b49…178dbacked Yes1c4,331$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-72%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61b8…e78fbacked Yes3c4,077$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.961811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a4…e658backed Yes1c4,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24290%0 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.