Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc734f61dbb7fbf5ff7afac8c18b1f05f13c4b9b408f8f8d6d210a862ebabd00d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,821,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,149,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,821,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 316 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 381,037$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,956.76 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…2cadbacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 1c | 151,629$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 1c | 101,243$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.52 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 1c | 99,999$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.99 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…6122backed Yes | 1c | 92,695$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 1c | 88,647$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.77 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 76,904$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.52 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c7…85c1backed Yes | 1c | 70,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 60,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…de5fbacked Yes | 3c | 57,792$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…b671backed Yes | 2c | 57,523$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…0b84backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd545…4084backed Yes | 1c | 43,087$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes | 0c | 37,986$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d9…593abacked Yes | 1c | 37,583$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.61 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 3cpaid | +819.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 1c | 36,102$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.27 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb21…65a0backed Yes | 1c | 34,998$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes | 2c | 32,979$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 3c | 32,554$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.31 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 1c | 29,018$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.24 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 2c | 28,800$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba4…7b7ebacked Yes | 4c | 28,518$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5156…84c1backed Yes | 1c | 28,386$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes | 1c | 28,155$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.17 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 27,608$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.41 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 4c | 25,475$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.66 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 23,400$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8c9dbacked Yes | 1c | 22,993$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 1c | 20,237$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.57 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf4…f505backed Yes | 1c | 19,084$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c10…7a35backed Yes | 1c | 17,831$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 1c | 17,629$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658f…cc25backed Yes | 1c | 16,808$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 1c | 16,654$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.58 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe815…60afbacked Yes | 1c | 16,499$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcf…8bb4backed Yes | 1c | 16,387$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 1c | 15,091$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc940…02d2backed Yes | 2c | 14,932$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.66 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 3c | 14,858$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.16 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabe…69f6backed Yes | 1c | 14,766$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.27 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b46…48fcbacked Yes | 1c | 14,286$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c24…32d6backed Yes | 1c | 14,277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf681…f265backed Yes | 1c | 13,587$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bf…c046backed Yes | 1c | 13,500$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8284…86f0backed Yes | 7c | 12,905$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.4 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…6e29backed Yes | 2c | 12,775$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.13 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +197.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa962…fe4abacked Yes | 1c | 12,390$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d4b8backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412b…85b2backed Yes | 1c | 11,388$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8150…d03fbacked Yes | 3c | 10,439$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 3c | 10,026$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.75 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 1c | 9,142$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 1c | 8,914$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…658fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,525$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…67edbacked Yes | 1c | 8,317$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 18cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,303$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…384ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,189$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb003…adf5backed Yes | 10c | 7,897$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 1c | 7,722$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9783backed Yes | 1c | 7,693$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6c…0a9cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,692$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 4c | 7,664$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.6 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x190f…01f3backed Yes | 1c | 7,455$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…5d9bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,170$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…50b4backed Yes | 3c | 6,619$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…6616backed Yes | 1c | 6,577$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa91d…8d8bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,539$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad19…8e03backed Yes | 1c | 6,532$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…c70ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,210$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.32 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked Yes | 3c | 6,012$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.27 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4006…9f86backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89a…058abacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd02e…be0abacked Yes | 1c | 5,953$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5a…177bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,900$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 6c | 5,630$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.48 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…5cc3backed Yes | 1c | 5,577$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b17…3117backed Yes | 7c | 5,425$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…58f9backed Yes | 6c | 5,375$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,350$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e81…5599backed Yes | 1c | 5,349$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 2c | 5,300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.94 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,300$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 8c | 5,296$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…fcb4backed Yes | 1c | 5,069$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1819…6cbdbacked Yes | 2c | 5,043$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…a9c9backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189a…198cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe570…686fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1665…27b7backed Yes | 1c | 4,966$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 2c | 4,959$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc27…2219backed Yes | 1c | 4,700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 4c | 4,506$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.75 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…2a0dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,497$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.85 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,331$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -72%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e78fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,077$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…e658backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.