TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,140,716
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,249,118

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,140,716 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes1c599,999$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.992524%6 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes0c475,688$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.668610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes1c307,661$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,497.399736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes0c267,046$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.663810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes1c168,342$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.087311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cf…cf8ebacked Yes0c116,713$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+224.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes1c100,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2002218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes0c98,048$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.68180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15eb…86b3backed Yes1c78,087$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…6261backed Yes0c75,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+153.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes1c71,787$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.248125.9%21 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes1c65,522$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.55456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes0c60,221$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.5314039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xdbbb…05a8backed Yes2c56,319$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-58.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes1c53,333$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x685f…bcc3backed Yes2c46,694$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Yes0c40,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160200%0 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes2c39,057$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.25430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes2c34,798$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes2c32,683$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7102623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-48.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf80b…b99fbacked Yes1c26,454$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7779…791bbacked Yes1c22,717$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca38…c70ebacked Yes1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8db…3a7fbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes1c19,402$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.24611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7da9…78c4backed Yes1c18,896$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.751127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c16,750$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.444769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c15,101$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9143212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb840…72e1backed Yes0c15,060$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c3…12a5backed Yes1c14,400$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.6714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-76.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2c…06d2backed Yes1c14,147$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.91520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-70.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes1c13,462$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.51600%0 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes1c13,449$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.25326.3%2 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-81.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes0c12,490$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.47260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01b0…5aaabacked Yes1c12,221$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.55100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b49…178dbacked Yes1c11,987$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.28175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-72%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x749f…714bbacked Yes2c11,463$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17960%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes1c10,999$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.438139.5%32 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x033c…f779backed Yes1c10,571$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes0c10,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30468.7%4 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes1c10,172$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8670%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51a9…b036backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x503a…e256backed Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50160%0 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb309…4874backed Yes1c9,784$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa188…c511backed Yes1c9,667$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes2c8,682$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2116417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…134dbacked Yes0c8,300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-55.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes1c8,180$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.933337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes2c7,976$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.34130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes0c7,605$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.42280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes1c7,495$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4748923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d32…d860backed Yes0c7,200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x337b…fb62backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes0c6,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274634.8%16 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+104.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9939…d3bebacked Yes1c6,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397812.8%10 W · 68 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ac…41f3backed Yes5c6,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3b…6a99backed Yes1c6,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30205%1 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes2c6,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9017111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1384…e5c3backed Yes2c5,941$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bdb…9080backed Yes3c5,682$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160220%0 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8d5…84d9backed Yes2c5,522$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa89a…058abacked Yes2c5,500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes1c5,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5315232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc3…d183backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…4c25backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd74d…ebdfbacked Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25160%0 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02d5…a42ebacked Yes2c5,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-52.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+143.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba4c…6110backed Yes1c4,313$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b0…aa12backed Yes1c4,167$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25287.1%2 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-87%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a58…dd44backed Yes0c4,155$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.62424.8%2 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+137.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes2c4,070$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.15220%0 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes2c4,024$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ebb…e1f5backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20440%0 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafce…363fbacked Yes1c3,800$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x413c…b1ddbacked Yes1c3,600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x279c…35cfbacked Yes1c3,590$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.86336.1%2 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-61%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd713…f074backed Yes1c3,571$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…f21abacked Yes1c3,571$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75c7…c2f8backed Yes1c3,500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca6…384ebacked Yes2c3,421$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.58166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes2c3,394$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5819739.1%77 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16a…b564backed Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202714.8%4 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ae…ef9cbacked Yes1c3,192$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.34100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d6…8b6fbacked Yes2c3,182$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-51.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc31…7e2bbacked Yes1c3,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-90.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb5…4c04backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4006…9f86backed Yes1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2170%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf641…24b5backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1590%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e99…8f2fbacked Yes0c2,965$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7345…0e83backed Yes1c2,925$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6195…4570backed Yes1c2,857$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405246.2%24 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes2c2,850$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.411844.1%52 W · 66 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes2c2,788$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f8…e3acbacked Yes2c2,750$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe22e…786fbacked Yes1c2,624$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.