Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe209dc6ca6921ff591483aef5a5e8873ab6f59fa69b1d6cbe05b627c71e8ba44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,140,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,249,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,140,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes | 1c | 599,999$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,899.99 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 0c | 475,688$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.66 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 1c | 307,661$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.39 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 0c | 267,046$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.66 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 1c | 168,342$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.08 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…cf8ebacked Yes | 0c | 116,713$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +224.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 1c | 100,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes | 0c | 98,048$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.68 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15eb…86b3backed Yes | 1c | 78,087$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…6261backed Yes | 0c | 75,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 1c | 71,787$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.24 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 1c | 65,522$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.55 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 0c | 60,221$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.53 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…05a8backed Yes | 2c | 56,319$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 1c | 53,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…bcc3backed Yes | 2c | 46,694$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…6a46backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 2c | 39,057$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.25 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes | 2c | 34,798$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes | 2c | 32,683$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…b99fbacked Yes | 1c | 26,454$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7779…791bbacked Yes | 1c | 22,717$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…c70ebacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…3a7fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 1c | 19,402$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da9…78c4backed Yes | 1c | 18,896$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,750$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 15,101$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb840…72e1backed Yes | 0c | 15,060$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c3…12a5backed Yes | 1c | 14,400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2c…06d2backed Yes | 1c | 14,147$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 1c | 13,462$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes | 1c | 13,449$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,490$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…5aaabacked Yes | 1c | 12,221$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked Yes | 1c | 11,987$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -72%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…714bbacked Yes | 2c | 11,463$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 1c | 10,999$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…f779backed Yes | 1c | 10,571$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes | 1c | 10,172$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a9…b036backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…e256backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb309…4874backed Yes | 1c | 9,784$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…c511backed Yes | 1c | 9,667$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 2c | 8,682$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.21 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…134dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 1c | 8,180$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 2c | 7,976$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.34 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,605$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 7,495$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d32…d860backed Yes | 0c | 7,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x337b…fb62backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ac…41f3backed Yes | 5c | 6,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3b…6a99backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1384…e5c3backed Yes | 2c | 5,941$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdb…9080backed Yes | 3c | 5,682$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d5…84d9backed Yes | 2c | 5,522$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89a…058abacked Yes | 2c | 5,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…4c25backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…a42ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…6110backed Yes | 1c | 4,313$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…aa12backed Yes | 1c | 4,167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -87%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 0c | 4,155$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,070$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 2c | 4,024$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebb…e1f5backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…32f9backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…363fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…b1ddbacked Yes | 1c | 3,600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…35cfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,590$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…f074backed Yes | 1c | 3,571$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…f21abacked Yes | 1c | 3,571$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…c2f8backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…384ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,421$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 2c | 3,394$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…b564backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ae…ef9cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,192$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…8b6fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,182$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc31…7e2bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…4c04backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4006…9f86backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…24b5backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e99…8f2fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,965$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7345…0e83backed Yes | 1c | 2,925$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 1c | 2,857$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,850$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,788$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f8…e3acbacked Yes | 2c | 2,750$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22e…786fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,624$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.