Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a4d97b6b54f49991f3984998fc8423668b09e9ea21de7074f27ab7dd4953ba3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,917,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,012,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,917,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,001 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 74c | 217,491$160,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160,238.21 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Yes | 26c | 63,362$16,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,864.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 62,834$47,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,142.44 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 74c | 56,626$42,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,080.98 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 23c | 54,418$12,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,917.93 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…d9febacked No | 0c | 49,095$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7d…9881backed Yes | 34c | 44,504$15,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,283.73 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 69c | 39,546$27,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,116.1 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd1…2c8abacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6e…d642backed No | 72c | 29,440$21,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,132.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed No | 75c | 26,000$19,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,459.1 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…5e2abacked Yes | 27c | 24,513$6,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,894.64 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked No | 73c | 24,223$17,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,797.89 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 33c | 24,053$7,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,231.17 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 15c | 20,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,999.95 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed No | 74c | 19,338$14,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,283.75 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 38c | 18,623$7,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,135.49 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 24c | 18,465$4,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,056.98 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 1c | 18,191$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.99 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 22c | 15,500$3,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,149.88 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 72c | 15,000$10,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,750 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 22c | 13,559$2,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,598.18 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked No | 0c | 13,311$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 71c | 13,299$9,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,410.35 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked No | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2432…3ef5backed Yes | 32c | 12,340$3,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,354.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…dbbbbacked Yes | 29c | 11,208$3,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,971.97 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 68c | 11,127$7,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,522.77 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed Yes | 20c | 10,425$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,343.95 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +447.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3af8…a69ebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…6895backed Yes | 33c | 9,091$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,090.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5d…91d8backed No | 78c | 8,734$6,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,807.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 25c | 8,692$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,518.84 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked No | 76c | 8,000$6,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,115 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed Yes | 21c | 8,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,319.98 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 76c | 7,995$6,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,053.34 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 33c | 7,972$2,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,368.06 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 21c | 7,739$1,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,123.89 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 74c | 7,653$5,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,696.54 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -9.6wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…15f9backed Yes | 22c | 7,238$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,638.48 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…864bbacked No | 72c | 6,979$5,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,025.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 59cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 32c | 6,802$2,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,615.67 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x577f…07ebbacked Yes | 25c | 6,785$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,088.85 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 17c | 6,746$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,575.62 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…5b3fbacked Yes | 24c | 6,508$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,947.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…d64abacked Yes | 20c | 6,500$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…2f13backed Yes | 29c | 6,481$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,587.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…8b2abacked Yes | 32c | 6,328$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,328.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +287.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 6,316$3,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,778.28 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 25c | 6,241$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,709.41 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…3170backed Yes | 21c | 6,144$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,854.01 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8828…3e50backed No | 1c | 5,934$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 23c | 5,542$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,291.11 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0df…69c5backed Yes | 24c | 5,400$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,104 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…e215backed Yes | 23c | 5,286$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,050.66 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +10.6wins | +0.62per pick | 26cpaid | +259.4%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…9d40backed No | 2c | 5,271$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…3f31backed Yes | 18c | 5,231$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,270.77 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…a3b1backed No | 75c | 5,200$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 35c | 5,000$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,270.1 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…8c1bbacked Yes | 19c | 4,971$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,050.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 4,868$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,372.38 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed No | 70c | 4,847$3,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,383.11 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 4,772$3,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,674.8 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…21d7backed No | 79c | 4,674$3,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,706.7 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2053…1eedbacked Yes | 22c | 4,574$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,574.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc1…08e1backed Yes | 19c | 4,535$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,685.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 30c | 4,533$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,155.5 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…58f9backed Yes | 34c | 4,434$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,933.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 0c | 4,254$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…f4e0backed Yes | 36c | 4,250$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,701.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 6c | 4,202$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…7d90backed Yes | 31c | 4,190$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,891.32 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,142$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54cf…a1edbacked Yes | 24c | 4,123$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,133.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cd…9740backed Yes | 17c | 4,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,320 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…0cf1backed Yes | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +166.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 32c | 3,914$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,648.51 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 28c | 3,902$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,809.25 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3433…aa9ebacked Yes | 34c | 3,862$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,561.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 60c | 3,858$2,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,330.41 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 27c | 3,800$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,780.99 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be9…4a46backed Yes | 39c | 3,727$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,273.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 76c | 3,726$2,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.71 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…f21fbacked Yes | 21c | 3,571$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,821.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 79c | 3,506$2,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769.53 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d89…ad32backed Yes | 29c | 3,460$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,459.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +173.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes | 21c | 3,456$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,727.77 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…a780backed No | 61c | 3,295$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…e5a7backed Yes | 31c | 3,226$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,226.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +253.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…f19bbacked Yes | 27c | 3,226$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,356.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 18cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…c01abacked No | 71c | 3,183$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,248 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -7.7wins | -0.52per pick | 58cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5d…0ee8backed Yes | 19c | 3,147$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,543.55 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +174.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed No | 75c | 3,100$2,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336.97 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…71edbacked Yes | 19c | 3,050$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,478.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.25per pick | 34cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…68dbbacked Yes | 23c | 3,023$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,322.53 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 26c | 3,000$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,218 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…5d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 2,995$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 33c | 2,978$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.01 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed Yes | 34c | 2,969$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.