Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe57fce6d333b67f7fb948464a393689ef410fe70dbded0f2f8bce59ffb205355
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,611,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,874,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,611,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,354 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 662,133$3,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,760.26 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 3c | 610,645$16,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,833.09 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 2c | 509,959$9,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,075.23 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 290,556$4,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,989.34 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…cc80backed Yes | 12c | 254,965$29,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,559.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 1c | 249,670$1,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.16 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…6a46backed Yes | 1c | 217,000$2,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,176.99 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 1c | 204,630$1,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,972.27 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 2c | 194,939$4,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,547.04 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 1c | 191,420$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,439.91 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 2c | 184,531$4,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,382.3 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes | 2c | 175,890$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960.13 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf365…ac01backed Yes | 2c | 174,968$3,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 5c | 147,984$7,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,456.76 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb54…5202backed Yes | 1c | 118,188$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…1cf9backed Yes | 1c | 114,995$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…edc5backed Yes | 0c | 108,394$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.58 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 4c | 107,367$3,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,854.04 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 0c | 103,075$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.6 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…c70ebacked Yes | 1c | 101,855$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.79 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6e…8931backed Yes | 1c | 96,280$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.54 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…6589backed Yes | 1c | 93,639$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 2c | 87,616$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.48 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2521…eec7backed Yes | 2c | 82,056$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 1c | 76,467$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.35 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd86…f2c8backed Yes | 2c | 72,413$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…02c3backed Yes | 14c | 68,916$9,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,543.14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4c…685dbacked Yes | 8c | 68,023$5,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 2c | 64,581$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.76 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x490c…0ed3backed Yes | 2c | 60,000$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…2bc2backed Yes | 0c | 56,348$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…b195backed Yes | 0c | 54,834$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c3…1e79backed Yes | 2c | 54,808$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…f661backed Yes | 1c | 53,193$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd024…dc82backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 1c | 49,578$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.94 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 43,438$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…2124backed Yes | 2c | 42,726$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 80c | 39,269$31,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,000.8 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…6d1fbacked Yes | 3c | 38,000$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…1527backed Yes | 2c | 37,000$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 2c | 31,613$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.17 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06c8…3312backed Yes | 2c | 31,528$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577f…07ebbacked Yes | 2c | 30,726$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.78 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…015fbacked Yes | 8c | 30,521$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…6877backed Yes | 0c | 29,996$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes | 2c | 29,914$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d7…312cbacked Yes | 34c | 29,882$10,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,059.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…9ff1backed Yes | 1c | 29,831$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.15 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc8…7f4bbacked Yes | 2c | 29,632$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.81 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…6b8dbacked Yes | 1c | 27,425$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 1c | 27,000$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdabe…69f6backed Yes | 1c | 26,726$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.64 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 2c | 25,500$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…2547backed Yes | 1c | 24,545$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.56 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 12c | 24,321$2,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,935.83 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…433abacked Yes | 3c | 23,766$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 8c | 23,750$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffe…ab99backed Yes | 1c | 21,561$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…98e3backed Yes | 1c | 21,111$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f01…558fbacked Yes | 8c | 21,098$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes | 2c | 20,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…1ee8backed Yes | 9c | 20,000$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 0c | 19,995$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0468…a8b0backed Yes | 35c | 19,978$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…9fb6backed Yes | 2c | 19,562$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c2b5backed Yes | 10c | 19,455$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b0…9079backed Yes | 2c | 19,139$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b33…9a34backed Yes | 3c | 18,735$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…c419backed Yes | 1c | 18,464$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…56f5backed Yes | 1c | 18,387$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.23 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c1…ea0dbacked Yes | 17c | 18,189$3,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,005.3 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4469…654cbacked Yes | 3c | 17,896$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7159…ccefbacked Yes | 3c | 17,617$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8b…97efbacked Yes | 3c | 17,048$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 12c | 16,949$2,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,056.5 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d2…efb2backed Yes | 28c | 16,823$4,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,709.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 5c | 16,233$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.32 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 3c | 16,167$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…1fdebacked Yes | 9c | 15,979$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd090…a4bfbacked Yes | 2c | 15,804$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 2c | 15,758$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b17…3117backed Yes | 9c | 15,705$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…b8f8backed Yes | 2c | 15,140$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 12c | 14,841$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.91 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…a470backed Yes | 3c | 14,751$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…6344backed Yes | 1c | 14,534$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02b…ab4fbacked Yes | 2c | 14,376$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda01…3b1dbacked Yes | 11c | 14,136$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08aa…2742backed Yes | 11c | 14,044$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 10c | 13,881$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 3c | 13,683$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.02 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…29bfbacked Yes | 11c | 13,640$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3132…cae8backed Yes | 1c | 13,628$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…9f99backed Yes | 2c | 13,409$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…ed20backed Yes | 1c | 13,379$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.92 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda8…65c6backed Yes | 15c | 13,188$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 13cpaid | +1,514.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed Yes | 9c | 13,000$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.98 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.