TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,193,272
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,474,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,193,272 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 4,824 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No41c836,899$343,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343,458.8414821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes63c266,328$168,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,742.777732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No43c173,755$74,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,463.5937740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ce…bf33backed No47c164,373$77,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,050.18742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick70cpaid-42.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c80…02c3backed Yes65c155,877$102,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,837.11546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…b8f7backed Yes55c142,714$78,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,350.564100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+133.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd9d…29bfbacked Yes66c140,910$92,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,249.74475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+84.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No45c132,497$59,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,063.8726423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed No34c127,937$43,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,342.112842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e03…6f34backed Yes73c127,890$93,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,423.975100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b02…4991backed No44c122,163$54,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,035.722917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7dc…9a0cbacked No0c111,212$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+206.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes67c103,420$68,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,591.2164339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes52c100,000$51,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,125.81241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15cb…e25fbacked Yes51c100,000$51,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,949.974100%4 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+161.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa39c…08bcbacked Yes70c95,529$66,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,982.31988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick61cpaid+40.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No37c92,321$34,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,273.0351138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed Yes72c90,000$65,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,868.34360.5%26 W · 17 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9339…a56fbacked No51c87,484$44,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,974.911540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No45c86,906$38,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,818.993933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed No44c82,675$36,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,343.532934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick52cpaid+21.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Yes47c82,385$38,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,859.655745.6%26 W · 31 L-8.3wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Yes60c66,666$40,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,593.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-53.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86cd…504cbacked Yes64c66,196$42,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,100.791794.1%16 W · 1 L+7.3wins+0.43per pick51cpaid+118.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No23c62,430$14,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,572.8521531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb076…4df8backed Yes67c61,310$41,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,214.65650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes61c58,509$35,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,797.3815541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc18…d0f4backed No0c57,525$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No36c57,454$20,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,616.7110444.2%46 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05e2…6e12backed Yes55c56,269$31,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,115.41560%9 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x831f…7443backed No31c55,093$17,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,214.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+79.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcafd…bb08backed Yes68c55,030$37,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,409.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…5839backed Yes56c54,977$30,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,392.68850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b70…209dbacked No0c54,725$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes59c54,340$31,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,410.4614129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes63c53,849$33,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,190.5112038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes49c53,744$26,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,393.66063.3%38 W · 22 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+114.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfd8f…a3b1backed Yes60c53,688$32,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,339.051637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x08e2…c729backed Yes47c50,044$23,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,585.511060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes50c49,093$24,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,715.259736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes53c47,395$25,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,094.743828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes59c47,369$27,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,576.3314039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x37d1…4e28backed Yes57c43,456$24,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,784.731752.9%9 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.30per pick23cpaid+184.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No36c40,258$14,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,645.546127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.6wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-42.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No18c38,674$6,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,907.2842818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed No34c38,000$12,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,879.962339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick48cpaid+56.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ec7…35c0backed Yes46c37,000$17,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,869.98875%6 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+123.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9b69…38d3backed Yes63c34,517$21,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,771.265100%5 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+206.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5145…1f46backed Yes47c33,617$15,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,914.891586.7%13 W · 2 L+8.5wins+0.56per pick30cpaid+238%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0x6608…b9b9backed Yes65c33,178$21,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,612.465100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaabb…fa95backed Yes59c32,890$19,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,534.891533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes65c32,635$21,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,405.720549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf80b…4c35backed No34c32,380$11,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,081.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbed…10f7backed Yes53c32,231$17,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,170.431861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b46…1d01backed Yes54c32,197$17,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,652.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+97%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93e6…4fa4backed Yes63c32,153$20,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,004.258100%8 W · 0 L+4.2wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+138.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No47c31,686$14,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,831.423050%15 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ea…ae12backed Yes66c30,579$20,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,344.322556%14 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes57c30,469$17,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,112.685431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeda…426fbacked No1c30,200$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+58.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd1…2c8abacked No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes67c30,000$20,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,949.9213850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes65c29,802$19,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,331.748450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2428…1e86backed No54c29,800$16,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,053.98714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked No28c29,143$8,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,213.045846.6%27 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x182b…f3d3backed Yes52c28,900$15,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,871.92540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-32.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No39c28,761$11,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,321.1231649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x607f…592cbacked Yes45c28,423$12,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,566.83862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.41per pick21cpaid+162.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x476d…67c6backed Yes69c28,000$19,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,620250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc682…17bbbacked No49c27,684$13,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,623.662634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae4c…d114backed Yes78c27,546$21,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,194.323100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No43c26,905$11,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,698.4840433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No37c25,303$9,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,307.4735631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9631…89a1backed Yes68c25,098$17,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,052.96475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1521…f23ebacked Yes50c25,035$12,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,496.543764.9%24 W · 13 L+7.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+98.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5637…7599backed No47c24,796$11,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,650.430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes60c23,870$14,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,557.24553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3f…1a6fbacked Yes49c23,653$11,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,062.971258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick31cpaid+97.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes44c23,200$10,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,992.119647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes69c22,848$15,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,046.242070%14 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc360…dbb2backed Yes61c22,774$13,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,873.166365.1%41 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x870c…5806backed No46c22,608$10,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,430.44616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-78.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes66c22,490$14,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,569.638538.8%33 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+87.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes53c22,073$11,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,316.3838237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes67c22,000$14,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,208.644156.1%23 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd054…7e38backed Yes69c22,000$15,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,869.967948.1%38 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes50c21,715$10,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,912.166056.7%34 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No56c21,500$12,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,062.189145.1%41 W · 50 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5813…b464backed Yes52c21,046$10,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,119.18450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes63c20,843$13,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,615.873360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes67c20,676$13,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,737.544854.2%26 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes36c20,628$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,228.136132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x53c2…6758backed Yes68c20,500$13,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,560540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes50c20,480$10,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,321.89930.3%30 W · 69 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdef6…f63abacked Yes68c20,306$13,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,410.631353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+38.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e55…ddd2backed Yes59c20,257$11,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,313.74100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+103.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes62c20,016$12,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,697.361540%6 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+149.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes55c19,600$10,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,913.3120749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20fe…f411backed Yes59c19,146$11,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,910.981190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick64cpaid+43.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd7ea…dd4ebacked Yes75c19,055$14,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,779.6580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.