Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x797d586ad45522306490b0cc9b2f21bdf957f3843476fae99f3bcc2cec83b74b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,193,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,474,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,193,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 4,824 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 41c | 836,899$343,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343,458.84 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 63c | 266,328$168,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97,742.77 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 43c | 173,755$74,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74,463.59 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…bf33backed No | 47c | 164,373$77,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77,050.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…02c3backed Yes | 65c | 155,877$102,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,837.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…b8f7backed Yes | 55c | 142,714$78,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,350.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…29bfbacked Yes | 66c | 140,910$92,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,249.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 45c | 132,497$59,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,063.87 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 34c | 127,937$43,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,342.11 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e03…6f34backed Yes | 73c | 127,890$93,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,423.97 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed No | 44c | 122,163$54,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,035.72 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dc…9a0cbacked No | 0c | 111,212$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +206.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 103,420$68,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,591.21 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes | 52c | 100,000$51,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,125.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cb…e25fbacked Yes | 51c | 100,000$51,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,949.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…08bcbacked Yes | 70c | 95,529$66,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,982.31 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 37c | 92,321$34,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,273.03 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 72c | 90,000$65,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,868.3 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…a56fbacked No | 51c | 87,484$44,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,974.91 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 45c | 86,906$38,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,818.99 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 44c | 82,675$36,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,343.53 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Yes | 47c | 82,385$38,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,859.65 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 60c | 66,666$40,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,593.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86cd…504cbacked Yes | 64c | 66,196$42,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,100.79 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +7.3wins | +0.43per pick | 51cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 23c | 62,430$14,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,572.85 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…4df8backed Yes | 67c | 61,310$41,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,214.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 61c | 58,509$35,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,797.38 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…d0f4backed No | 0c | 57,525$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 36c | 57,454$20,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,616.71 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed Yes | 55c | 56,269$31,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,115.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831f…7443backed No | 31c | 55,093$17,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,214.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…bb08backed Yes | 68c | 55,030$37,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,409.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed Yes | 56c | 54,977$30,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,392.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b70…209dbacked No | 0c | 54,725$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 59c | 54,340$31,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,410.46 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 63c | 53,849$33,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,190.51 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 49c | 53,744$26,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,393.6 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…a3b1backed Yes | 60c | 53,688$32,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,339.05 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…c729backed Yes | 47c | 50,044$23,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,585.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 50c | 49,093$24,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,715.25 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 53c | 47,395$25,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,094.74 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 59c | 47,369$27,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,576.33 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…4e28backed Yes | 57c | 43,456$24,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,784.73 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 23cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 36c | 40,258$14,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,645.54 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 18c | 38,674$6,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,907.28 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 34c | 38,000$12,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,879.96 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec7…35c0backed Yes | 46c | 37,000$17,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,869.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b69…38d3backed Yes | 63c | 34,517$21,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,771.26 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +206.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…1f46backed Yes | 47c | 33,617$15,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,914.89 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +8.5wins | +0.56per pick | 30cpaid | +238%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…b9b9backed Yes | 65c | 33,178$21,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,612.46 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…fa95backed Yes | 59c | 32,890$19,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,534.89 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 65c | 32,635$21,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,405.7 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…4c35backed No | 34c | 32,380$11,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,081.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbed…10f7backed Yes | 53c | 32,231$17,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,170.43 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…1d01backed Yes | 54c | 32,197$17,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,652.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93e6…4fa4backed Yes | 63c | 32,153$20,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,004.25 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 47c | 31,686$14,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,831.42 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…ae12backed Yes | 66c | 30,579$20,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,344.32 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 57c | 30,469$17,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,112.68 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…426fbacked No | 1c | 30,200$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd1…2c8abacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 67c | 30,000$20,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,949.92 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 65c | 29,802$19,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,331.74 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2428…1e86backed No | 54c | 29,800$16,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,053.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 28c | 29,143$8,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,213.04 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f3d3backed Yes | 52c | 28,900$15,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,871.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 39c | 28,761$11,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,321.12 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607f…592cbacked Yes | 45c | 28,423$12,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,566.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 21cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…67c6backed Yes | 69c | 28,000$19,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,620 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…17bbbacked No | 49c | 27,684$13,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,623.66 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 78c | 27,546$21,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,194.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 43c | 26,905$11,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,698.48 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 37c | 25,303$9,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,307.47 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…89a1backed Yes | 68c | 25,098$17,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,052.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 50c | 25,035$12,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,496.54 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed No | 47c | 24,796$11,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,650.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes | 60c | 23,870$14,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,557.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3f…1a6fbacked Yes | 49c | 23,653$11,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,062.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 31cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 44c | 23,200$10,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,992.11 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Yes | 69c | 22,848$15,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,046.24 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…dbb2backed Yes | 61c | 22,774$13,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,873.16 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…5806backed No | 46c | 22,608$10,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,430.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 66c | 22,490$14,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,569.63 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 53c | 22,073$11,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,316.38 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 67c | 22,000$14,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,208.64 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed Yes | 69c | 22,000$15,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,869.96 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 50c | 21,715$10,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,912.16 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 56c | 21,500$12,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,062.18 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5813…b464backed Yes | 52c | 21,046$10,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,119.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 63c | 20,843$13,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,615.87 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 67c | 20,676$13,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,737.54 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 36c | 20,628$7,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,228.13 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x53c2…6758backed Yes | 68c | 20,500$13,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,560 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 50c | 20,480$10,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,321.8 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…f63abacked Yes | 68c | 20,306$13,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,410.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…ddd2backed Yes | 59c | 20,257$11,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,313.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes | 62c | 20,016$12,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,697.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 55c | 19,600$10,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,913.31 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…f411backed Yes | 59c | 19,146$11,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,910.98 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 64cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…dd4ebacked Yes | 75c | 19,055$14,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,779.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.