Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7011cb54689f777d1010d94178451ee3c03a6b892e2ace8787abbe85e762bd11

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 25, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,924,662
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,660,458

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,924,662 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 361 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes	1c	232,989$3,406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,406.18	43	0%0 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes	2c	193,016$3,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,037.26	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-37%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66d6…50c7backed Yes	1c	78,956$1,125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,125.2	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	+4.5wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e5d…f85bbacked Yes	3c	68,903$2,232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,232	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0fb…d4bbbacked Yes	5c	42,007$2,123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,123	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea98…8626backed Yes	7c	41,140$2,795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,794.53	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes	7c	39,844$2,747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,747.31	44	15.9%7 W · 37 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes	2c	39,727$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$854.55	73	11%8 W · 65 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes	2c	39,065$694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$693.67	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes	2c	30,780$638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$637.58	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	6cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes	3c	28,200$966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$965.68	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-4.9wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9758…536dbacked Yes	1c	26,798$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.39	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	12cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes	1c	26,058$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.82	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb06…250abacked Yes	2c	26,000$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499	31	6.5%2 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-86.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes	2c	25,503$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$609.56	108	37%40 W · 68 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	0c	25,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	476	9.9%47 W · 429 L	+15.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74a7…5980backed Yes	6c	25,000$1,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,599.84	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.11per pick	15cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9586…8320backed Yes	0c	23,500$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.5	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	1c	23,045$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.73	404	33.7%136 W · 268 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes	2c	22,430$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.68	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes	3c	21,787$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.16	287	34.5%99 W · 188 L	+21.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked Yes	2c	20,711$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.29	79	29.1%23 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee95…0625backed Yes	0c	20,040$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes	1c	19,894$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.94	432	12.5%54 W · 378 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66ad…aa8cbacked Yes	3c	19,816$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes	2c	19,474$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.95	287	50.2%144 W · 143 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf210…f594backed Yes	2c	18,324$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.19	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ddd…9640backed Yes	6c	16,541$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050.26	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x663c…56e1backed Yes	2c	16,414$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.32	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes	4c	15,967$639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$638.68	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.15per pick	42cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes	2c	15,939$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.49	63	36.5%23 W · 40 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes	4c	15,549$673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$673.44	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd517…5f34backed Yes	3c	15,192$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a54…ba75backed Yes	4c	14,179$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$598.49	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b38…171fbacked Yes	2c	14,056$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.66	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae4f…b821backed Yes	2c	13,331$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.02	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0490…2a0dbacked Yes	11c	13,164$1,404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,403.74	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes	2c	12,836$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.27	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c95…5b93backed Yes	5c	12,201$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.19	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7319…0299backed Yes	5c	11,228$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.53	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes	2c	11,192$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.08	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-84.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes	3c	10,741$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.97	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	3c	10,365$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.19	141	29.8%42 W · 99 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b8…c770backed Yes	0c	10,350$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	66	16.7%11 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cfd…2927backed Yes	2c	10,228$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7982…97b7backed Yes	3c	10,165$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes	5c	10,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-6.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	+149.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a2…f5cabacked Yes	1c	9,920$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf01c…c69bbacked Yes	2c	9,333$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50bf…1304backed Yes	2c	9,071$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.77	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ad…d7c8backed Yes	3c	9,059$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69a9…ee33backed Yes	2c	8,944$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.57	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5dd8…5ca7backed Yes	3c	8,638$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes	3c	8,353$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.65	92	17.4%16 W · 76 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf44d…cc17backed Yes	4c	7,821$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.08	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	55cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes	2c	7,665$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.42	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc44b…7ddfbacked Yes	3c	7,236$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes	1c	7,193$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.88	183	38.3%70 W · 113 L	+14.5wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e96…2c1bbacked Yes	6c	7,167$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes	3c	7,150$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.39	86	7%6 W · 80 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes	6c	7,100$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.99	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a52…99dabacked Yes	2c	6,944$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9e34…c876backed Yes	7c	6,551$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.26	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes	5c	6,246$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.34	85	15.3%13 W · 72 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed Yes	2c	6,145$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.39	44	0%0 W · 44 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce5…460ebacked Yes	3c	6,000$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.33	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8db…3a7fbacked Yes	1c	5,990$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd49…ca83backed Yes	2c	5,769$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.71	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f52…9fbabacked Yes	3c	5,651$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.47	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes	3c	5,613$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.4	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…aa35backed Yes	2c	5,538$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Yes	7c	5,500$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-5.0wins	-0.15per pick	24cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe962…2ae5backed Yes	10c	5,338$547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$547	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…27febacked Yes	2c	5,273$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.91	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49b5…d249backed Yes	2c	5,197$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.91	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4f1…39e2backed Yes	2c	5,190$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.11	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59db…d304backed Yes	6c	5,170$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.76	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b79…d63fbacked Yes	2c	5,047$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	48	27.1%13 W · 35 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdabe…69f6backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes	2c	5,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2e…13d6backed Yes	2c	4,971$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7873…2c6ebacked Yes	4c	4,779$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.76	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b5c…72cebacked Yes	1c	4,586$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a53…505abacked Yes	2c	4,573$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	20cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4354…89a9backed Yes	2c	4,566$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	25	12%3 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-71.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2222…3f39backed Yes	2c	4,500$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	+58.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93e6…798fbacked Yes	3c	4,500$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff5…9937backed Yes	2c	4,495$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	4c	4,341$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.46	75	13.3%10 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b5d…dc30backed Yes	2c	4,319$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.97	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc9…2fe9backed Yes	2c	4,175$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c17…7ad9backed Yes	2c	4,164$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	2c	4,159$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.15	82	7.3%6 W · 76 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4c…b2f5backed Yes	2c	4,135$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2fc…08f8backed Yes	10c	4,121$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.54	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x077a…ec51backed Yes	11c	4,011$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.93	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a91…dfc4backed Yes	3c	4,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd49c…2cbdbacked Yes	2c	3,867$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.42	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa5d…ab88backed Yes	1c	3,830$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.79	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90b4…fd80backed Yes	12c	3,829$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?this page
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event