Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63eed4826f75272a6ff68e0d0d6d0e0e685407a75e5dc9dd78236693c4ab1741
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,008,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,010,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,008,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 736 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 66c | 190,370$126,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126,572.54 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 30c | 84,327$25,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,201.37 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…d9febacked No | 0c | 37,549$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 27,547$18,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,522.23 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a3…1807backed Yes | 39c | 21,463$8,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,136.56 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 40c | 20,072$8,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,049.21 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 33c | 18,391$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,390.85 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x69f9…7478backed No | 62c | 17,649$10,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,867.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 41c | 16,432$6,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,641.34 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Yes | 34c | 15,294$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,094.04 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…8914backed Yes | 35c | 14,160$4,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,167.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 26c | 13,498$3,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,996.49 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 75c | 12,443$9,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,290.8 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be9…1442backed Yes | 33c | 12,000$3,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,039.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 35c | 11,939$4,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,710.19 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…0cf3backed Yes | 36c | 11,827$4,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,569.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 39c | 11,128$4,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,742.29 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…ad9dbacked Yes | 37c | 10,811$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,810.81 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…ab0ebacked Yes | 26c | 10,046$2,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,433.71 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.57per pick | 31cpaid | +264.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed No | 75c | 10,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 32c | 9,740$3,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,612.58 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 22c | 9,461$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,395.97 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8572…152dbacked No | 78c | 9,108$7,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,080.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 32c | 8,949$2,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,059.74 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 34c | 8,824$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,823.53 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…b980backed Yes | 37c | 8,004$2,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,014.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc860…1454backed No | 71c | 8,000$5,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,690.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 33c | 7,913$2,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,280.82 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e11…cbcdbacked No | 74c | 7,894$5,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,850 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 7,845$2,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,963.32 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 34c | 7,276$2,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,784.17 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 39c | 6,554$2,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,022.18 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…ea7cbacked No | 0c | 6,288$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…9d40backed No | 2c | 6,057$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…3408backed No | 67c | 6,050$4,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,053.68 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdae2…c8bebacked No | 75c | 5,900$4,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,440 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 66c | 5,848$3,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,874.97 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…0888backed Yes | 29c | 5,691$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,014.04 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +5.5wins | +0.50per pick | 32cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 68c | 5,606$3,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,827.8 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2009…f3c3backed Yes | 36c | 5,560$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,560.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7d…9881backed Yes | 35c | 5,404$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,512.34 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 23c | 5,000$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,850 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,650 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed Yes | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,399.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 1c | 4,821$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…4b28backed No | 76c | 4,642$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,550.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked No | 65c | 4,625$3,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,008.41 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ca…d535backed Yes | 48c | 4,159$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,158.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…6289backed No | 71c | 4,025$2,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,860 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 37c | 3,832$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,413.34 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 37c | 3,789$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,371.58 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9a…81d5backed Yes | 27c | 3,721$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,720.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…c01abacked No | 69c | 3,521$2,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -7.7wins | -0.52per pick | 58cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…f4e0backed Yes | 43c | 3,520$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566d…d58fbacked Yes | 29c | 3,447$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.35 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 28c | 3,443$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,465.23 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 77c | 3,315$2,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.34 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 63c | 3,300$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…7143backed Yes | 31c | 3,264$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,252.49 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.56per pick | 32cpaid | +217.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 68c | 3,252$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,217.87 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -9.6wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe883…b5b8backed No | 67c | 3,197$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Yes | 35c | 3,181$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…e215backed Yes | 33c | 3,030$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.3 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +10.6wins | +0.62per pick | 26cpaid | +259.4%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked Yes | 26c | 3,003$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,217.26 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 30c | 2,999$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,092 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 34c | 2,989$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,982.41 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…cb76backed Yes | 37c | 2,929$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,845.25 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 2,887$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.98 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…5aacbacked Yes | 35c | 2,883$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877.06 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.40per pick | 37cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 38c | 2,757$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.58 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Yes | 41c | 2,715$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…a3b1backed Yes | 35c | 2,531$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,427$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…4635backed Yes | 43c | 2,323$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 34c | 2,240$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.12 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…8727backed Yes | 38c | 2,132$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.69 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35b1…8962backed Yes | 39c | 2,079$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 72c | 2,000$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 28c | 2,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…a5edbacked Yes | 38c | 1,963$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.05 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 33c | 1,961$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.38 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 32c | 1,900$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…bb38backed No | 79c | 1,888$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +36%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No | 61c | 1,880$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.82 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 36c | 1,839$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.8 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 37c | 1,805$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.28 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…02dcbacked Yes | 35c | 1,782$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…960ebacked No | 62c | 1,654$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.27 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -5.5wins | -0.50per pick | 59cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…d8b1backed No | 60c | 1,619$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed Yes | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.9 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a2…958abacked Yes | 35c | 1,606$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…a570backed Yes | 34c | 1,521$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…a5d2backed Yes | 40c | 1,507$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…d050backed Yes | 33c | 1,502$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.39 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…8c02backed No | 67c | 1,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…06d6backed Yes | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +340.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…03a7backed Yes | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…1df3backed No | 77c | 1,446$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.