Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fc804e4d893f86d49229eb42492cabf6150f5bcbf36c1b66d1e8f22bc15ec6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,812,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,008,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,812,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,403 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 75c | 380,626$285,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285,557.54 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 17c | 113,299$18,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94,530.42 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ec…8240backed Yes | 28c | 101,186$27,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,243.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 22cpaid | +221.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed Yes | 16c | 101,181$16,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85,180.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +447.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 72,836$57,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,970.56 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed No | 74c | 63,498$47,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,143.27 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…58f9backed Yes | 25c | 61,977$15,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,333.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01be…ecc1backed Yes | 16c | 58,547$9,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,897.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +481.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 73c | 40,934$30,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,035.49 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 11c | 39,993$4,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,581.74 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…7336backed No | 0c | 38,800$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 26c | 36,865$9,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,365.31 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…2b42backed Yes | 25c | 36,509$9,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,455.39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked No | 78c | 36,296$28,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,149.51 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 20c | 36,099$7,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,708.46 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…433abacked Yes | 15c | 35,567$5,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,157.31 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 78c | 35,135$27,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,458.48 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 1c | 35,000$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…d9febacked No | 0c | 34,600$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes | 17c | 34,462$6,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,460.76 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 18c | 31,978$5,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,914.24 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…8339backed Yes | 18c | 29,500$5,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,220 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…e215backed Yes | 30c | 28,907$8,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,147.36 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +10.6wins | +0.62per pick | 26cpaid | +259.4%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 16c | 28,000$4,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,559.97 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5d…91d8backed No | 79c | 26,351$20,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,837.61 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…0f89backed No | 12c | 26,162$3,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 71c | 25,437$18,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,003.6 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0a…5e4ebacked Yes | 19c | 25,161$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,261.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +413.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 22c | 24,342$5,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,991.74 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x86cd…504cbacked Yes | 28c | 23,801$6,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,227.46 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +7.3wins | +0.43per pick | 51cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 18c | 22,133$4,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,039.68 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 68c | 18,644$12,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,710.98 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 17,389$4,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,844.35 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 27c | 17,078$4,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,542.75 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1c…f277backed Yes | 25c | 15,690$3,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,767.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…3aebbacked No | 80c | 15,627$12,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,501.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…015fbacked Yes | 33c | 15,512$5,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,392.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 22c | 15,054$3,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,667.74 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb921…bea5backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b8…18c7backed Yes | 19c | 14,867$2,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,105.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +650.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked No | 73c | 14,804$10,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,812.28 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 71c | 14,200$10,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,011.99 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 34c | 14,000$4,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,286.67 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2b…f091backed Yes | 18c | 13,889$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,388.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.61per pick | 19cpaid | +385.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 70c | 13,714$9,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,587.51 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 73c | 13,675$10,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,022.09 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…7d6cbacked Yes | 37c | 13,564$4,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,582.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…8b2abacked Yes | 30c | 13,366$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,365.61 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +287.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1d…0c53backed Yes | 27c | 13,000$3,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,509.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 37c | 12,930$4,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,176.22 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5947backed Yes | 12c | 12,618$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,103.77 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes | 19c | 12,424$2,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,096.73 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 20c | 11,399$2,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,064.7 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…2f13backed Yes | 30c | 11,249$3,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,894.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca76…28b3backed No | 68c | 10,913$7,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,421.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes | 28c | 10,894$3,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,846.11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…3170backed Yes | 19c | 10,553$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,587.94 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…a7a3backed No | 64c | 10,477$6,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,736.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f6…1905backed Yes | 24c | 10,204$2,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,800.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +213.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…cee7backed No | 68c | 10,100$6,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,916.97 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed No | 78c | 10,000$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,800 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…5d4fbacked No | 72c | 10,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e11…27dcbacked Yes | 32c | 10,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,799.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 26c | 10,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,399.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…d77abacked Yes | 22c | 9,922$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,722.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 64c | 9,826$6,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,276.72 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 49c | 9,249$4,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,758.07 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…05b4backed No | 70c | 9,156$6,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,374.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435e…0f1fbacked Yes | 24c | 9,149$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,949.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 15cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 75c | 9,140$6,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,863.58 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed Yes | 28c | 8,876$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,376.07 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…e337backed Yes | 29c | 8,766$2,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,224.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…c93cbacked Yes | 24c | 8,647$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,547.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 75c | 8,500$6,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,375.01 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 2c | 8,368$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.18 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce6…9469backed Yes | 30c | 8,320$2,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,825.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…e8b0backed Yes | 29c | 8,296$2,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,871.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +242.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c78…42b7backed Yes | 30c | 8,248$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,747.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +229.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc607…6b29backed No | 78c | 8,200$6,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,395.99 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…1feabacked Yes | 26c | 8,077$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,976.92 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…7b53backed Yes | 14c | 8,023$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,881.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…aad0backed Yes | 28c | 7,917$2,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,709.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Yes | 26c | 7,692$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,692.31 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 32c | 7,615$2,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,212.4 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 3c | 7,464$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.23 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 73c | 7,030$5,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,097.66 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…16a3backed Yes | 31c | 7,002$2,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,825.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked No | 80c | 7,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…c3ebbacked Yes | 18c | 7,000$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,730 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 72c | 6,732$4,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,828.85 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…bfaebacked Yes | 15c | 6,619$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,619.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked No | 79c | 6,579$5,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,183.65 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a9ffbacked No | 2c | 6,530$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 76c | 6,520$4,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,947.35 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…2547backed Yes | 17c | 6,294$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,226.45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…977cbacked Yes | 25c | 6,235$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,691.66 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +6.4wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 0c | 6,197$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 14c | 6,004$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,172.68 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 17c | 6,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,980 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 19c | 6,000$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,849.98 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.