Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a9c672954add1948931ece050d225bfbfa7650979bbe6458ac3af08d1e44742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $190,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 60c | 47,168$28,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,160.63 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 46c | 15,172$6,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,219.2 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 10c | 11,922$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.22 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 43c | 10,758$4,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,142.97 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 33c | 10,000$3,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,661.6 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 5,951$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 46c | 5,675$2,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,088.77 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 31c | 5,007$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,453.45 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 45c | 4,290$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,366.77 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 65c | 3,213$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.59 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d89…ad32backed Yes | 51c | 2,965$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +173.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c6…337cbacked Yes | 47c | 2,861$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.06 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x471e…e6ddbacked Yes | 45c | 2,778$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.78 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +8.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +376.5%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…28b6backed Yes | 39c | 2,564$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…bb38backed Yes | 42c | 2,387$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +36%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 57c | 2,095$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.6 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed No | 50c | 1,515$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.11 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 1,332$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 1,295$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.05 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 35c | 1,288$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.5 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x566d…d58fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,197$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.82 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…f84dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,031$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,015$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.52 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…4df8backed Yes | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…1a1dbacked Yes | 40c | 984.25$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.25 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 32c | 968.11$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.31 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 59c | 954$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.73 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 51c | 923.82$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.45 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked No | 59c | 777$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.76 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…edc5backed Yes | 45c | 766.59$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.62 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa92a…39bdbacked Yes | 51c | 718.57$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.1 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes | 52c | 710.93$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.32 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked Yes | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…741fbacked Yes | 47c | 628.23$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 52c | 625.76$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.4 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 9c | 573.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 540.32$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.41 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -11.0wins | -0.33per pick | 64cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x86cd…504cbacked Yes | 71c | 469.09$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.18 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +7.3wins | +0.43per pick | 51cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5755…473cbacked Yes | 52c | 420.74$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…22e4backed Yes | 48c | 414.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed Yes | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcc…10e7backed No | 50c | 399.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 69c | 398.04$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.57 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015c…f39bbacked No | 50c | 395.45$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…971fbacked Yes | 51c | 391.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5126…da91backed Yes | 43c | 349.21$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 20cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…1e2ebacked No | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -11.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 39c | 290.8$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked No | 14c | 287.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 47c | 278.07$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52ab…c26cbacked Yes | 53c | 274$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 35c | 272.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 39c | 260.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f3…2568backed No | 67c | 249.25$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -8.2wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcea2…0f20backed Yes | 39c | 243.59$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 41c | 236.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.27 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 80c | 234.14$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…68bfbacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbee…697dbacked Yes | 45c | 219.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No | 65c | 216.76$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.59 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 62c | 210.04$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.97 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…b2e1backed Yes | 53c | 208.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a55…c349backed Yes | 33c | 201.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.11 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +7.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…559abacked No | 61c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -10.0wins | -0.59per pick | 65cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 24-0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…9afcbacked No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -6.9wins | -0.53per pick | 61cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…34f2backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c14…ffa5backed No | 63c | 190.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.13 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -8.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 35c | 190$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…1ca2backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Yes | 34c | 184.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +12.3wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 51c | 162.18$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 72c | 152.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…708ebacked No | 59c | 152.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Yes | 33c | 151.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.51 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +7.5wins | +0.44per pick | 38cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 71c | 150.85$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -11.4wins | -0.47per pick | 60cpaid | -81%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 34c | 147.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 66c | 145.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…ff3dbacked No | 51c | 145.1$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…2c6bbacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.6wins | -0.32per pick | 58cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…aad3backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -9.8wins | -0.43per pick | 64cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x44c0…8b38backed Yes | 39c | 144.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.44per pick | 22cpaid | +146.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd455…1a22backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +211.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 22c | 135.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3346…00f5backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.25per pick | 27cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 53c | 117.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1333…4447backed Yes | 47c | 115.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…346dbacked Yes | 44c | 112.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a83…9c16backed Yes | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…4555backed Yes | 45c | 105.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +268.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked No | 48c | 104.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -8.4wins | -0.34per pick | 58cpaid | -65%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked No | 49c | 101.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -9.5wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.