TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9006…507e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
111
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 57 out of 100; worst Middle East at 31.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT3043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.53
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$48.04
Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT+203%+$60.91
Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$66.67
Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$26.67
Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+108.3%+$21.67
Will Tottenham win on 2025-02-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST+127.3%+$28
Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST+112.8%+$79.5
Colombia wins Copa America 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$35
Argentina wins Copa America 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2024, EDT+177.8%+$177.78
Will another player be Euro 2024 top scorer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT+455.6%+$341.67
Uruguay wins Copa America 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$150
Will Switzerland win the 2024 Euros?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$26.5
Euro 2024: Favorite fails to advance beyond group stage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$87.05
Will England win?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2024, EDT+143.9%+$35.98
Will Portugal win?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$25
Will Real Madrid win the 2023-24 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2024, EDT+94.2%+$47.12
Erik ten Hag out as Manchester United manager?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2024, EDT+114.3%+$120
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST2524%6 W · 19 L-8.4wins-0.34per pick58cpaid-65%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$67.6
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$150
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$255
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$300
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+46.2%+$138.73
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$599Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$599.26
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,001Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+41.9%+$419.33
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$667Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+25.6%+$170.59
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$109.56
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+37%+$184.93
Israel military action on Yemen before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$160
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$44
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2024, EDT+49.3%+$67.65
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2024, EDT+75.4%+$33.4
All 25 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT2157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Will Boston Celtics 2023-24 NBA Champions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2024, EDT+84%+$84.03
Will another player be the top rebounder for the 2024 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: Game 5backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2024, EDT+163.2%+$32.63
Eastern Conference Finals: Celtics vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$22
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: Game 3backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2024, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
Will Denver Nuggets be 2023-24 NBA Champions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$199.43
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: Game 7backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$15
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Series Winnerbacked Twolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2024, EDT+177.8%+$26.67
Thunder vs. Mavericks Series Winnerbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$27.44
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets: Game 6backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$22.04
Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Game 5backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$13
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: Game 5backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2024, EDT+58.7%+$9.98
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets: Game 4backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2024, EDT+132.6%+$17.23
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics: Game 3backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Game 3backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2024, EDT+72.4%+$10.86
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets: Game 3backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2024, EDT+163.2%+$24.47
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks: Game 1backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2024, EDT+63.9%+$31.97
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: Game 2backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2024, EDT+194.1%+$25.24
NBA: New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers 2024-04-30backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2024, EDT+150%+$15
NBA: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder 2024-04-29backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2024, EDT+51.5%+$41.68
All 21 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$25.45
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+100%+$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2024, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Is $DJT real?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2024, EDT+33%+$32.98
Will Trump launch a coin by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2024, EDT+26.6%+$39.87
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$967Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$967
Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$270
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+27.1%+$81.39
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.