Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Bitcoin all time high by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4088e683c567431e6fb070ef36e3517bbbe29f1d61b0c2f3bd806c582087b527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 14c | 4,763$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.51 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbe…1c89backed Yes | 30c | 2,336$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.02 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…a199backed No | 78c | 1,556$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,187$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 19c | 1,112$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.63 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…973fbacked Yes | 31c | 967.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb60…137abacked Yes | 29c | 941.38$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8848…3253backed Yes | 1c | 935.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754a…b519backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 72c | 240$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 74c | 222$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…062dbacked Yes | 31c | 194.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba5…1512backed No | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb5…70cebacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…99adbacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 12c | 123.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe686…13cbbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…e811backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf53…3f0dbacked Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…3d1ebacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…68a4backed No | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…a2e5backed No | 73c | 68.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…6428backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bb…ea96backed No | 72c | 68.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed No | 73c | 54.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d01…c5abbacked Yes | 33c | 42.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…d720backed No | 80c | 41.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabec…dc18backed No | 76c | 39.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf418…b2ccbacked No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…2d87backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f6…18bcbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09aa…aa40backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…cc89backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…ef9bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 74cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd5…ab40backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eea…2802backed No | 77c | 13.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c5…88abbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.