Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a2acac6842c13863765030ad7e1f8424ebd58aee11fc387be01f131cd78a1c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,489,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,336,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,489,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 802 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 35c | 243,167$84,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84,932.9 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 68c | 115,029$78,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,760.21 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 16c | 60,143$9,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,697.66 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 0c | 52,911$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.91 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 49,831$2,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,747.86 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 77c | 43,176$33,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,938.29 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 53c | 33,267$17,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,480.74 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 11c | 31,660$3,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,532.42 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…57b9backed No | 61c | 31,428$19,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,256.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…f535backed Yes | 39c | 31,428$12,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,256.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 55c | 29,328$16,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,296.53 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 62c | 28,324$17,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,717.97 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 14c | 27,834$3,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,767.33 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 10c | 26,986$2,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,670.87 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 37c | 26,634$9,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,803.78 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 45c | 25,815$11,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,736.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 59c | 23,741$14,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,661.26 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x543a…f2cfbacked Yes | 10c | 23,659$2,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,389.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked No | 68c | 21,904$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,904.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 54c | 18,884$10,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,742.34 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 9c | 18,190$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.31 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 37c | 17,892$6,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,708.03 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 32c | 17,548$5,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,553.37 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 3c | 17,306$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.04 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 2c | 16,601$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.43 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 14c | 15,963$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,218.79 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x922f…69d4backed Yes | 47c | 15,771$7,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,390.56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 60c | 15,732$9,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,250.35 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 29c | 15,707$4,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,631.95 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 27c | 15,628$4,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,245.61 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 19c | 15,426$2,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,945.73 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 15c | 15,277$2,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,245.5 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…3b35backed No | 60c | 14,590$8,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,897.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 17c | 13,769$2,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,346.71 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 73c | 13,753$10,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,663.4 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1099…903cbacked Yes | 6c | 13,518$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe140…78d4backed No | 67c | 13,445$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,444.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…fb37backed No | 76c | 13,000$9,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,160 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 24c | 12,531$2,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,993.07 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,411$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.26 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked No | 74c | 12,226$9,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,165.66 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6abe…d6a5backed No | 76c | 12,180$9,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,932.39 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 44c | 11,872$5,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,193.19 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…b088backed No | 63c | 11,804$7,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,419.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…6648backed Yes | 16c | 11,614$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,804.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 10c | 11,515$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.33 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 31c | 11,177$3,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,480.79 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 11c | 10,603$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…3d75backed No | 70c | 10,519$7,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,118.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 8c | 10,500$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.47 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 25c | 10,383$2,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580.72 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…c47fbacked Yes | 8c | 10,329$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f94…380ebacked No | 61c | 10,000$6,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 61c | 10,000$6,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,850 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f51ebacked No | 61c | 10,000$6,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,854.32 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked No | 57c | 9,628$5,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd39d…00bcbacked Yes | 7c | 9,394$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 79c | 9,381$7,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,985.05 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87dc…2afdbacked Yes | 4c | 9,248$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 13c | 9,095$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.57 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 9,042$2,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.44 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 24c | 8,798$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.09 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 77c | 8,492$6,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,952.37 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 79c | 8,467$6,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 1c | 8,279$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…74cebacked No | 53c | 8,114$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,813.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 8c | 8,009$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.34 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 7,970$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.19 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…ea89backed Yes | 26c | 7,966$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,094.6 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed Yes | 44c | 7,881$3,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,474 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes | 9c | 7,875$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 11c | 7,753$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.73 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked No | 77c | 7,726$5,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.61 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 24c | 7,356$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.51 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 20c | 6,957$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.37 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…f703backed No | 78c | 6,876$5,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 37c | 6,671$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,231.9 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…e944backed No | 76c | 6,550$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee4…71e5backed No | 62c | 6,439$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,438.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 62c | 6,163$3,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,372.45 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…e8d6backed Yes | 16c | 6,136$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 4c | 6,130$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.79 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 33c | 6,046$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978.37 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed No | 61c | 5,999$3,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,353.52 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b1…bc54backed No | 62c | 5,945$3,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.02 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccda…4937backed No | 52c | 5,917$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,817.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 35c | 5,700$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,686.98 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 5,680$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…d636backed Yes | 12c | 5,557$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee0…27a2backed No | 61c | 5,485$3,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked No | 71c | 5,481$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…dc4fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,361$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…a5c8backed Yes | 20c | 5,225$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…1b55backed No | 79c | 5,094$4,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 41c | 4,925$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,925.31 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 39c | 4,663$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.02 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…994dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,653$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe8…b7e4backed No | 62c | 4,577$2,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 14c | 4,556$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.61 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 5c | 4,493$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.