TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,489,289
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,336,118

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,489,289 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 802 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes35c243,167$84,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,932.937740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No68c115,029$78,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,760.2140433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes16c60,143$9,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,697.662516%4 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes0c52,911$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.913116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c49,831$2,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,747.86721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No77c43,176$33,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,938.2935347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No53c33,267$17,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,480.744257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes11c31,660$3,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,532.421520%3 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-59%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33b2…57b9backed No61c31,428$19,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,256.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b27…f535backed Yes39c31,428$12,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,256.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No55c29,328$16,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,296.535141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No62c28,324$17,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,717.9715626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes14c27,834$3,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,767.332532%8 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked Yes10c26,986$2,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,670.875642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes37c26,634$9,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,803.7813850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes45c25,815$11,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,736.71752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No59c23,741$14,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,661.267247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x543a…f2cfbacked Yes10c23,659$2,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,389.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked No68c21,904$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,904.121353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No54c18,884$10,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,742.348749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes9c18,190$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.3115023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes37c17,892$6,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,708.038137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes32c17,548$5,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,553.3727233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes3c17,306$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.047538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes2c16,601$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.43387.9%3 W · 35 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-60.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes14c15,963$2,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,218.798037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x922f…69d4backed Yes47c15,771$7,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,390.561735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No60c15,732$9,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,250.356726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes29c15,707$4,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,631.9534440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes27c15,628$4,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,245.612213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes19c15,426$2,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,945.7342738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes15c15,277$2,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,245.516743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c95…3b35backed No60c14,590$8,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,897.873100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes17c13,769$2,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,346.7131241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No73c13,753$10,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,663.428750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1099…903cbacked Yes6c13,518$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.571442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe140…78d4backed No67c13,445$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,444.621060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fbd…fb37backed No76c13,000$9,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1602166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+55.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes24c12,531$2,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,993.072828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes2c12,411$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.263135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked No74c12,226$9,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,165.661553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6abe…d6a5backed No76c12,180$9,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,932.393775.7%28 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes44c11,872$5,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,193.195747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf636…b088backed No63c11,804$7,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,419.841050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c4…6648backed Yes16c11,614$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,804.67560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes10c11,515$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.334318.6%8 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes31c11,177$3,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,480.796942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes11c10,603$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.29450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+94.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c3e…3d75backed No70c10,519$7,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,118.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed Yes8c10,500$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.472642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes25c10,383$2,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,580.7251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfff7…c47fbacked Yes8c10,329$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.38728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f94…380ebacked No61c10,000$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,900666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No61c10,000$6,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8502450%12 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8258…f51ebacked No61c10,000$6,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,854.322035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked No57c9,628$5,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,160.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd39d…00bcbacked Yes7c9,394$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.131020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked No79c9,381$7,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,985.052842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x87dc…2afdbacked Yes4c9,248$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.181010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes13c9,095$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.578143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes22c9,042$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.4489617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa020…d807backed Yes24c8,798$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,090.094119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed No77c8,492$6,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,952.3712654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked No79c8,467$6,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,805.8944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f51…e179backed Yes1c8,279$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b9…74cebacked No53c8,114$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,813.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes8c8,009$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.348139.5%32 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c7,970$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.1942120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d0…ea89backed Yes26c7,966$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.62330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed Yes44c7,881$3,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4746546.2%30 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes9c7,875$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.25728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes11c7,753$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.735633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4baf…5fdfbacked No77c7,726$5,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.616100%6 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+50.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes24c7,356$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,757.515354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes20c6,957$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.37156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-72.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e4d…f703backed No78c6,876$5,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.861643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No37c6,671$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,231.94940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f65…e944backed No76c6,550$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.58475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee4…71e5backed No62c6,439$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,438.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed No62c6,163$3,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,372.452227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2745…e8d6backed Yes16c6,136$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes4c6,130$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.7911728.2%33 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes33c6,046$1,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,978.3712138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x249c…2783backed No61c5,999$3,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,353.521457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34b1…bc54backed No62c5,945$3,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.022161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccda…4937backed No52c5,917$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,817.48450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No35c5,700$2,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,686.988844.3%39 W · 49 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes27c5,680$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.46728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849a…d636backed Yes12c5,557$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-63.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ee0…27a2backed No61c5,485$3,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,124.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked No71c5,481$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.07714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-79.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd103…dc4fbacked Yes0c5,361$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf459…a5c8backed Yes20c5,225$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0201643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+65.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e38…1b55backed No79c5,094$4,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.911435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No41c4,925$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,925.314045%18 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked Yes39c4,663$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.025042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…994dbacked Yes4c4,653$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.2640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fe8…b7e4backed No62c4,577$2,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728.71450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes14c4,556$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.6123420.9%49 W · 185 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes5c4,493$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.15742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.