TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfb32…db85

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
479
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Tennis, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 53 out of 100; worst World Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT34440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 344 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+429.3%+$343.45
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+79.9%+$159.71
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$131
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+37%+$74.77
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+30.5%+$121.89
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$86.32
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$5,324Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$1,722.11
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10,396Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+44.8%+$4,652.4
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,676Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,675.95
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+69.3%+$138.6
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+294.8%+$332.45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$3,401Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+71.9%+$2,446.81
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$7,210Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+49.6%+$3,572.78
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,900Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$507.64
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,050Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+122.9%+$1,290.68
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+181.9%+$1,091.47
Showing 25 of 344 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT3828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+127.8%+$127.77
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+259.8%+$259.76
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,030
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+264.5%+$264.46
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$101
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$101
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$5,929Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$5,929.42
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$2,938Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,938
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Russia announces air truce by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$154.81
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$101
Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$85
Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+45.9%+$15.5
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$852Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+279.3%+$2,379.75
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,622Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,621.57
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$111
Will Putin meet with Trump before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$630
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3735.1%13 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
U.S. withdraws from Syria in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+91.4%+$270.1
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+73.3%+$29.3
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+83.4%+$250.18
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.97
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$600
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.13
US military action on Yemen before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$830Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$830
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+608.9%+$730.62
US military action against Iran by Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$4,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+28.6%+$1,145.37
US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+317.2%+$1,237.04
Will Trump visit Israel in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$400
US-Saudi Arabia nuclear deal before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+25.7%+$25.68
Will China confirm trade negotiations have begun by next Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+39.4%+$197.18
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$2,009Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,009.25
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+619.4%+$619.42
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$58.68
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,075Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+25.7%+$533.18
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.88
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will Italy win on 2025-09-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$11.67
Will Denmark beat Spain?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+26.6%+$18.27
Will Israel beat France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$135
All 12 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$685Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$685
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+38.9%+$38.9
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+213.4%+$320.17
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+34.7%+$34.67
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+64.5%+$12.89
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$400
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$69.78
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$516Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$516.29
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 11 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$42.86
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+92.9%+$278.75
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+58.8%+$176.43
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 17, 2024, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST+59.9%+$419.59
ATP Finals: Alcaraz vs. Rublevbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2024, EST+56.3%+$39.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+78.6%+$39.29
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$13.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Roma beat Tottenham?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST+37%+$27
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.