Us Politics · resolved market
US military action on Yemen before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0c8a997f1e168b3c0959df99b3b31143c3a9b4cb488ca8479ca7437d383239b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 14c | 4,276$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.17 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 15c | 3,901$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b0…881dbacked Yes | 28c | 3,544$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 10c | 3,075$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.62 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,492$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.42 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 13c | 2,369$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.87 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,062$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.68 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,826$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.58 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 1,222$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…d709backed Yes | 2c | 1,186$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,048$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 15c | 999.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 21c | 959.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 25c | 950$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…1242backed Yes | 25c | 732.62$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 709.39$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.08 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 30c | 673.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 619.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 5c | 606$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 4c | 601.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 18c | 600.53$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 20cpaid | +456.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…a5c8backed Yes | 5c | 590.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 5c | 580.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 7c | 549.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…efd2backed Yes | 15c | 525.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 19c | 515.21$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 21c | 506.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 23c | 476.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 13c | 457.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 11c | 435.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094d…d7a7backed Yes | 13c | 416.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 54c | 371.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 67c | 358.32$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 334.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab79…5fbfbacked Yes | 31c | 323.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 31c | 300$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 290$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…54e0backed Yes | 29c | 280$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +226.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 14c | 230.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 25c | 226.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd3…8c6fbacked Yes | 41c | 210.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 38c | 210$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…8c8ebacked No | 77c | 200.52$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…3b1bbacked Yes | 34c | 177.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 15c | 175$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…00fabacked No | 69c | 170$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…0734backed Yes | 35c | 170$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6269…1887backed Yes | 41c | 152.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…8223backed No | 68c | 146.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 28c | 144.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 28c | 140.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed No | 74c | 135.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b0…24c0backed Yes | 30c | 108.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed No | 66c | 100.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932a…bd8cbacked Yes | 32c | 100.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…a62cbacked No | 12c | 95.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 38c | 89.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 16c | 89.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked Yes | 16c | 82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…1f38backed No | 70c | 81.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 16c | 64.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5598…0f47backed No | 61c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…cb5fbacked No | 78c | 51.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed Yes | 27c | 49.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe757…8047backed Yes | 44c | 45.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +256%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…103abacked Yes | 38c | 43.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 34c | 43.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…acb0backed No | 62c | 32.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeae…6412backed No | 66c | 30.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…4521backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd118…a96dbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 50c | 28.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…75f6backed Yes | 37c | 28.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x687a…e7c9backed No | 62c | 24.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…5c98backed No | 61c | 21.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5b…f08abacked No | 65c | 16.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.