TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3336…cb5f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$18.49
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$18.49
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$405
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+122.2%+$61.11
Will Russia capture any territory in Lyman by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+47.1%+$23.53
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$94
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+128.2%+$538.42
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$410Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+65.9%+$270.3
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$402.93
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$43
India agrees to reduce purchases Russian oil by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$22.4
Will Russia capture Dorozhnje by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$376Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$376.21
Will Russia capture Udachne by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+35.2%+$28.15
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+80.4%+$64.35
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+37.3%+$172.43
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+267%+$333.75
Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT+27.3%+$31.76
Trump x Putin talk before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+100.6%+$70.43
All 21 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+94.8%+$71.12
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$39.38
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Israel strike on Iran on June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+103.2%+$51.59
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+51%+$76.46
Israel strike on Iran on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+34.4%+$6.88
Iran strike on Qatar today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$125
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$57.45
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+47.1%+$23.53
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+73.3%+$18.33
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT+54.3%+$92.25
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.