Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe252404a63e04d8199105b91833a47471317be7307e2471a9349375694bc39c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $830,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $791,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $830,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 330 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 11c | 43,942$4,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,956.11 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 13c | 25,485$3,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,210.6 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 79c | 24,633$19,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,203.18 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 19,018$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.45 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 24c | 16,723$4,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,042.98 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…287cbacked Yes | 14c | 14,721$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd98a…dfc5backed Yes | 14c | 13,798$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 17c | 12,900$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,158.62 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 12,283$9,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,485.2 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 11c | 10,896$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.1 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 13c | 10,540$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.89 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…ada5backed Yes | 13c | 10,431$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 7c | 9,951$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.81 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 24c | 9,660$2,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,347.96 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 20c | 9,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 67c | 8,236$5,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,751.75 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 10c | 8,031$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.74 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 15c | 7,755$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked Yes | 29c | 7,673$2,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,261.59 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 30c | 7,500$2,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,287.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 21c | 6,694$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 10c | 6,608$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.89 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 75c | 5,844$4,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.3 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…3ba6backed Yes | 10c | 5,620$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.52 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 5,352$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 70c | 5,300$3,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.85 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2731…2928backed Yes | 21c | 5,140$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 13c | 4,696$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.34 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 67c | 4,489$3,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.07 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 13c | 4,443$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.59 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34f…3b09backed Yes | 16c | 4,427$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.06 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 16c | 4,128$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.53 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…b8e8backed Yes | 24c | 3,849$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 20c | 3,532$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.12 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…32b8backed Yes | 33c | 3,514$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.38 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 68c | 3,509$2,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.99 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…6ad3backed Yes | 31c | 3,500$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 13c | 3,456$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.02 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 3,297$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 12c | 3,242$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.76 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d41…271abacked Yes | 12c | 3,226$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 80c | 3,081$2,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.65 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 79c | 3,000$2,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.6 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…6919backed Yes | 17c | 2,948$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 7c | 2,934$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,737$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.84 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…33f8backed Yes | 8c | 2,642$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 32c | 2,524$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.26 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,401$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.34 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 11c | 2,119$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.81 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 16c | 2,035$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.38 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked No | 79c | 1,879$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.86 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…6866backed Yes | 17c | 1,876$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.5 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 11c | 1,724$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.34 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…b363backed Yes | 30c | 1,723$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 12c | 1,699$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 18c | 1,671$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.69 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 1,622$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.61 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 26c | 1,596$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.41 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879a…1427backed Yes | 35c | 1,582$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,525$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f2…7336backed Yes | 36c | 1,521$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 11c | 1,501$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.08 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed No | 72c | 1,500$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c0…a91fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,498$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 1,463$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.38 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,453$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.84 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 76c | 1,387$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.01 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…f233backed Yes | 13c | 1,356$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.53 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08a2…f2c2backed Yes | 5c | 1,341$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 77c | 1,300$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…274cbacked No | 79c | 1,268$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…70febacked Yes | 12c | 1,251$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed Yes | 10c | 1,250$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 1,242$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.47 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 8c | 1,238$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 79c | 1,225$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.56 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…28f4backed Yes | 20c | 1,223$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…9ba4backed Yes | 10c | 1,200$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Yes | 18c | 1,119$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 70c | 1,093$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d52…50e6backed Yes | 30c | 1,088$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 10c | 1,080$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 68c | 1,066$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.44 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 9c | 1,058$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…703cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 32c | 999.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.38 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 6c | 926.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…26e2backed Yes | 2c | 924$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…4050backed Yes | 11c | 920.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed No | 75c | 900.01$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180b…d1febacked Yes | 14c | 875.32$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.46 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…47ccbacked No | 69c | 869.55$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.55 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed No | 71c | 863$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 18c | 852.8$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…e467backed Yes | 16c | 850$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 5c | 819.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.