Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62ba158e174d930828d8fee32968f1c7c0e972bff94661e69c65c135f611f5b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,918,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,982,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,918,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,330 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 78c | 59,298$46,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,946.81 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 61c | 51,173$31,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,915.97 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 76c | 35,774$27,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,523.54 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes | 39c | 35,500$13,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,645.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 50c | 33,585$16,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,648.09 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 50c | 30,924$15,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,418.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked No | 10c | 30,476$3,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,095 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 51c | 22,246$11,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,863.63 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 51c | 22,159$11,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,253.55 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc2…af19backed No | 9c | 22,038$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 41c | 20,226$8,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,240.26 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 45c | 20,216$9,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,065.53 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 56c | 20,168$11,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,838.91 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 67c | 19,591$13,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,178.19 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 49c | 18,837$9,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,654.53 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…16bfbacked No | 45c | 18,393$8,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,355.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 47c | 18,279$8,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,668.9 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 47c | 17,429$8,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,154.85 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9921…9f78backed No | 56c | 17,097$9,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,535.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 47c | 17,086$8,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,031.43 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 62c | 16,992$10,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,521.9 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6d…723abacked Yes | 54c | 16,878$9,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,776.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +143%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 50c | 15,397$7,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,715.08 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 51c | 15,326$7,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,508.92 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…1f7ebacked Yes | 53c | 14,968$7,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,084.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 52c | 13,793$7,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,688.31 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 48c | 13,427$6,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,007.48 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…e05cbacked No | 47c | 13,174$6,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,178.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 50c | 12,486$6,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,286.61 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 40c | 11,950$4,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,815.22 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…6486backed Yes | 68c | 10,760$7,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,480.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ce…16ecbacked No | 47c | 10,223$4,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,810.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee50…7ed6backed Yes | 56c | 10,000$5,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,349.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…06d5backed Yes | 44c | 9,823$4,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,518.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 34c | 9,696$3,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,430.54 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 43c | 9,574$4,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,424.89 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…50bcbacked No | 49c | 8,981$4,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,404.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…a461backed No | 56c | 8,864$4,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,973.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 41c | 8,339$3,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,408.12 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 56c | 8,257$4,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,666.26 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 57c | 8,000$4,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,439.98 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2731…2928backed Yes | 49c | 7,856$3,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,008.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 46c | 7,621$3,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,122.87 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 52c | 7,443$3,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,560.51 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…2280backed Yes | 38c | 7,075$2,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,369.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…b8e8backed Yes | 57c | 7,014$3,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,036.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98a…dfc5backed Yes | 44c | 6,965$3,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,877.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…4050backed Yes | 65c | 6,893$4,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,403.55 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked Yes | 76c | 6,839$5,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.05 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 42c | 6,589$2,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,847.44 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 53c | 6,473$3,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,056.11 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…890ebacked No | 6c | 6,307$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked Yes | 43c | 6,303$2,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,562.09 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 20c | 6,147$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.59 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 28c | 6,145$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,447.45 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 41c | 6,107$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.21 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked No | 42c | 6,053$2,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,555.76 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…faa7backed No | 50c | 6,051$3,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,015.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…bb41backed No | 53c | 5,987$3,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,193.52 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…b226backed No | 42c | 5,905$2,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,454 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 53c | 5,816$3,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,724.67 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…c024backed No | 55c | 5,815$3,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,185.65 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…8d02backed No | 11c | 5,800$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 45c | 5,751$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,158.39 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 44c | 5,750$2,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548.96 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…65a2backed Yes | 55c | 5,678$3,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,555.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7d…0bf1backed Yes | 45c | 5,556$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,055.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…9b80backed No | 54c | 5,533$2,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,967.43 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…c681backed No | 65c | 5,429$3,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,546.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…d092backed No | 46c | 5,408$2,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,464.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 41c | 5,235$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.22 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5af7…d410backed No | 20c | 5,198$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 78c | 5,118$4,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.61 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 55c | 5,114$2,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.65 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 41c | 5,069$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.71 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…9ba4backed Yes | 55c | 5,029$2,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264.07 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 47c | 5,000$2,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,353.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…81c3backed Yes | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 62c | 5,000$3,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,905.18 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed No | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 67c | 4,863$3,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.68 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…a671backed Yes | 54c | 4,424$2,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…8d0bbacked Yes | 66c | 4,319$2,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…adecbacked Yes | 49c | 4,313$2,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,186.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 43c | 4,280$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,435.17 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…61b8backed Yes | 51c | 4,185$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,036.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…cb39backed No | 45c | 4,129$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 59c | 4,101$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…bb14backed Yes | 55c | 4,088$2,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 55c | 3,991$2,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.17 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked No | 56c | 3,982$2,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,223.46 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3264…db8abacked No | 23c | 3,952$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22b6…34cabacked Yes | 51c | 3,906$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,905.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 56c | 3,901$2,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.98 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6003…e0f8backed No | 40c | 3,813$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 42c | 3,726$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.25 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe883…b5b8backed No | 48c | 3,574$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5650…8cbabacked Yes | 55c | 3,561$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…2415backed Yes | 25c | 3,493$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,619.55 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 59c | 3,386$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.23 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.