Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7bdb9ea209753809848cc73c51ad714a4a84660dd723b7af25cecb94711b0d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $221,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 14c | 37,500$5,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,350 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…a433backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…e05cbacked No | 12c | 11,217$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 16c | 8,038$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.84 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 15c | 7,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 20c | 6,950$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.95 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed No | 14c | 6,029$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.29 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af7…d410backed No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 18c | 4,888$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.85 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 22c | 4,885$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.38 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 13c | 4,600$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 13c | 3,900$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 19c | 3,376$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.32 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 10c | 3,138$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.36 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…ec0cbacked No | 5c | 2,939$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.56 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 76c | 2,889$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed No | 16c | 2,040$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 19c | 2,008$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.6 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…81c3backed Yes | 75c | 1,988$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.91 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 21c | 1,568$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.08 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b64…a346backed No | 20c | 1,269$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d64…738ebacked No | 12c | 1,154$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 77c | 1,128$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.9 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964d…5194backed No | 21c | 1,044$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…b43fbacked Yes | 80c | 1,029$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 77c | 999.98$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…d102backed No | 19c | 936.84$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…d63fbacked No | 14c | 912.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed No | 19c | 840.58$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 18c | 711.91$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.65 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 76c | 709.34$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.19 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 22c | 681.27$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.18 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 16c | 660.39$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.87 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 15c | 527.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…ae93backed No | 2c | 507.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741d…e35cbacked No | 18c | 505.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8b…3c39backed Yes | 79c | 503.25$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 18c | 500$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8913…54febacked No | 18c | 461.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked No | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 75c | 400$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…7ff5backed No | 20c | 389.2$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 15c | 365$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 14c | 337$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 329.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb00…e9c7backed No | 26c | 284.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…e65cbacked No | 18c | 279.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…8f72backed Yes | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c62…3900backed Yes | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 13c | 238.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8572…63ccbacked Yes | 79c | 235.59$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 80c | 206.65$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0b…8996backed No | 24c | 204.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 18c | 202.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked No | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e5…c1ecbacked No | 24c | 199.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 73c | 199.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…9a7dbacked No | 22c | 198.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 76c | 189.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 78c | 163.75$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 20c | 162.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 16c | 158.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked No | 20c | 155$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 15c | 142.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…890ebacked No | 18c | 138.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 20c | 133.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 130.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes | 75c | 129.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df2…941dbacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…494fbacked No | 15c | 123.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…126dbacked Yes | 80c | 117.03$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 13c | 110.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…32fbbacked No | 14c | 105.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…19bbbacked No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…7a5cbacked No | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…3cf0backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…61b8backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…70dcbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4250…62c1backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…3424backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9a…eefdbacked No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…e319backed No | 18c | 86.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…0681backed Yes | 80c | 81.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by November 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.