Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07ee279bba9504331b98ed151db364f9562f5cf80baec6d7ab37b5e32221a6d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 11c | 4,834$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.65 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f2…7336backed Yes | 8c | 4,747$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d52…50e6backed Yes | 12c | 4,489$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 10c | 4,129$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,100$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,768$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 7c | 1,342$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked Yes | 9c | 963$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 944.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 10c | 922$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…803bbacked Yes | 6c | 714.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 13c | 666.65$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…6654backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 5c | 480.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…174bbacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb352…96b6backed Yes | 14c | 355.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 7c | 249.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 9c | 235$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 5c | 216.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c4…a40abacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509e…63edbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x280b…f793backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 51c | 51.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +7.5wins | +0.44per pick | 38cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by April 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.