Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9733c3bed65be317f67ed5f1876373fe170a796bea52df59329e39c05aa8d06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $494,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $466,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $494,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 320 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 18c | 41,976$7,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,749.84 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…6cb0backed Yes | 13c | 20,848$2,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,718.94 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 23c | 15,618$3,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,647.31 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 15c | 15,457$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,379.79 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 79c | 14,749$11,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,105.52 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 19c | 14,591$2,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,843.54 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…1f7ebacked Yes | 16c | 13,795$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6d…723abacked Yes | 22c | 10,758$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,388 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +143%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 36c | 9,261$3,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,294.36 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 7c | 8,099$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.81 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 8,040$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.63 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…9f3dbacked No | 77c | 7,853$6,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 18c | 7,652$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.82 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 20c | 7,389$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.91 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 18c | 6,580$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.84 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9329…9d3ebacked Yes | 32c | 6,310$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035.81 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 17c | 5,737$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.56 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 75c | 5,681$4,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.75 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2731…2928backed Yes | 27c | 5,252$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 77c | 5,183$3,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.43 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2abc…8163backed Yes | 40c | 5,132$2,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 23c | 5,049$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.65 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 66c | 4,726$3,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.91 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…7863backed Yes | 20c | 4,695$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 72c | 4,268$3,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.39 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 59c | 4,240$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.39 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 72c | 3,901$2,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.16 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…761cbacked Yes | 20c | 3,855$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…6adcbacked No | 80c | 3,769$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0286…eb6cbacked Yes | 14c | 3,518$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 76c | 3,185$2,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.01 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc7…c24fbacked Yes | 34c | 2,959$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 70c | 2,951$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.76 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7d…0bf1backed Yes | 12c | 2,814$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…bb14backed Yes | 22c | 2,775$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,700$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.21 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 21c | 2,684$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.57 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…79e5backed No | 75c | 2,666$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.68 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 2,599$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.64 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed No | 74c | 2,571$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 25c | 2,515$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.88 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 77c | 2,502$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 75c | 2,482$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.32 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd145…5f52backed No | 70c | 2,295$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 74c | 2,087$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.36 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 17c | 2,001$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.1 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 1,962$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.83 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…65a2backed Yes | 18c | 1,842$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 27c | 1,797$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.26 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…3808backed No | 75c | 1,597$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 20c | 1,590$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.49 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,542$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.99 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf654…ce11backed Yes | 35c | 1,496$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,476$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.12 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 73c | 1,348$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.01 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 75c | 1,316$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.14 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…269bbacked No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ce…afe1backed Yes | 32c | 1,232$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 22c | 1,155$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.28 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…6901backed No | 73c | 1,138$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.43 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…159cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,121$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x636f…2b89backed Yes | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…2fedbacked Yes | 47c | 1,068$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +150%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…88cabacked No | 72c | 1,066$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.4 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 72c | 1,005$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.18 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf11…cd6bbacked Yes | 21c | 977.97$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 71c | 955.24$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.24 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 28c | 946.3$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.59 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…96e8backed Yes | 19c | 906.06$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x512b…a3cebacked Yes | 16c | 899.42$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 75c | 895.38$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.95 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 73c | 859.58$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.13 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34f…3b09backed Yes | 33c | 837.28$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.77 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 12c | 819.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 20c | 800$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 76c | 790.15$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.95 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 44c | 757.64$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.51 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…6866backed Yes | 27c | 757.16$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.6 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…bb41backed No | 66c | 754.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…f4efbacked Yes | 33c | 736.2$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…f7cbbacked Yes | 14c | 729.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ee…a4a0backed No | 78c | 691.01$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…cb39backed No | 73c | 682.37$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…9f75backed No | 72c | 663.82$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d41…271abacked Yes | 26c | 656.62$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed No | 68c | 650$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a2…9981backed No | 63c | 638.93$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 78c | 631.6$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.87 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 30c | 630.68$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.15 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3b…d589backed Yes | 33c | 613.1$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +212%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…39cdbacked Yes | 20c | 610.48$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…5850backed Yes | 24c | 599.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 80c | 564.79$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.79 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 72c | 557.64$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.76 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 76c | 549.75$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.94 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…8346backed Yes | 13c | 542.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 536.3$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 18c | 531.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.