TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1b7e…79e5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
79
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 58 out of 100; worst NHL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT1758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Another Israel strike on Yemen by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+54.1%+$1,245.41
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+166.2%+$498.67
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$387.89
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$6,163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,163
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+29.6%+$666.7
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,180
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$985.26
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$6,416Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,416
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,186Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+77.8%+$922.59
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+101.8%+$1,527.53
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+26.2%+$393.11
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+95.1%+$856.08
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+75.4%+$65.09
Assad leaves Syria before 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$50
All 17 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+411.5%+$205.75
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+326.4%+$489.65
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$125
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$92.97
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$799Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$798.51
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$830Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+234.9%+$1,949.28
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$800
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+25.9%+$362.17
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+222.6%+$44.52
Bucks vs. Warriorsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Lakers vs. Spursbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Suns vs. Grizzliesbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+58.7%+$29.37
Magic vs. Netsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+85.2%+$42.59
Raptors vs. Hornetsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+78.6%+$39.29
Pelicans vs. Hawksbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Clippers vs. Knicksbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Nuggets vs. Celticsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+300%+$150
Bulls vs. Pistonsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brisbane International: Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrovbacked Collignon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+150%+$75
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Andrey Rublev vs Yibing Wubacked Wu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Brisbane International: Kamil Majchrzak vs Reilly Opelkabacked Majchrzak · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+108.3%+$54.17
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Coleman Wong vs Gabriel Diallobacked Wong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+170.9%+$68.38
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Etcheverrybacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+113.4%+$154.1
Brisbane International: Magdalena Frech vs Linda Noskovabacked Noskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+34.1%+$107.35
ASB Classic: Xinyu Wang vs Renata Zarazuabacked Zarazua · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$140.55
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Juncheng Shang vs Francisco Comesanabacked Comesana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Brisbane International: Karolina Muchova vs Ajla Tomljanovicbacked Tomljanovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Jesper de Jong vs Gabriel Diallobacked Jong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+48.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-40.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Senators vs. Utahbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Flames vs. Canadiensbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Stars vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$40
All 3 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,800Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+27.9%+$781.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.