TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$613,251
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$691,979

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $613,251 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 431 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked No9c38,000$3,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,312.968206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed No6c14,348$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.628711.5%10 W · 77 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No34c12,320$4,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,195.3929331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7698…5136backed No1c10,579$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes24c10,130$2,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,700.912825%7 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes23c8,848$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,847.2624115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes26c7,800$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,791.2945715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No26c5,988$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.7145511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee50…7ed6backed Yes78c5,109$3,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7629…6141backed No48c4,658$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,217.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes77c4,602$3,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.628534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x423b…86c1backed Yes69c4,534$3,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.481118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No42c3,685$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.1254675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No10c3,601$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.141,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes77c3,272$2,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.968615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes19c2,935$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,383.822,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes76c2,776$2,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.25240.4%21 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a44…021cbacked Yes17c2,584$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.752114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x205e…1925backed Yes75c2,448$1,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.92540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed Yes55c2,381$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.71145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfd…9a92backed Yes71c2,167$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.461030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-50.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked No14c2,093$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.38185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77ef…9f6abacked Yes53c2,007$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.072528%7 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick19cpaid-31.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes34c2,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32054122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes8c2,000$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.99858.2%7 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes11c1,685$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.984816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes20c1,681$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.8865623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b46…544fbacked Yes21c1,569$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+378.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes68c1,566$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.5399619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes21c1,556$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.88211%9 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes30c1,477$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.885813.8%8 W · 50 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes77c1,450$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3341533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes16c1,400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17653817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b4…efc6backed Yes78c1,319$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.24977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90e…7e26backed Yes64c1,286$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd166…cdc1backed Yes38c1,196$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.072015%3 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No5c1,147$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3713430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes22c1,128$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.954818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0865…3dffbacked Yes76c1,109$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.03520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-73.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c60…0d85backed No2c1,100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked No2c1,064$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8126516.6%44 W · 221 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf43…b321backed Yes77c1,050$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2431428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes11c1,025$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.710325.2%26 W · 77 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes57c1,012$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.6462412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes16c1,010$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.37638.2%29 W · 47 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc304…97b4backed No25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503619.4%7 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c2…1398backed Yes28c1,000$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7152416.7%4 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes22c956.05$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.0525127.1%68 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2745…9b66backed Yes59c934.57$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes77c860.49$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.176124.6%15 W · 46 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x931d…dd7abacked Yes26c851.11$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.622630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e1…5998backed No67c810.36$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.9415520.6%32 W · 123 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes65c805.73$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.323215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes75c802.22$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.5523019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes42c797.37$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.116417.1%28 W · 136 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd99f…4400backed Yes60c785.43$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.79650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes55c777$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.651637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes78c769.23$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.2317612.5%22 W · 154 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d7…84e0backed Yes13c763.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.683026.7%8 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick16cpaid+60.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes27c727.46$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.465317%9 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes17c725.39$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.3942110%42 W · 379 L+1.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafbb…7525backed Yes25c721.2$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.25226.9%14 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd4…0f95backed Yes15c718.97$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.841020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes26c711.67$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.647966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3a…7c00backed Yes14c702.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.1156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c80…1c3bbacked Yes20c685.37$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.371428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+62.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes44c680.88$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.8846521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes12c669.55$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.3273215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes15c666.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.673225%8 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes45c666.31$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.3123217.7%41 W · 191 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8729…e624backed Yes35c655.73$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4058…8b1cbacked No36c645.58$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.08837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a97…4866backed Yes56c629.3$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.3633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c625.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.172,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7b4…66babacked Yes12c591.69$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.151225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed Yes78c576.92$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.926243.5%27 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes72c562.99$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.112112.4%15 W · 106 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-58.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes55c561.88$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.382714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb0…d543backed Yes26c555$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.71526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58db…6901backed Yes72c553.7$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes74c542.15$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.156431.3%20 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes21c540.3$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.4228113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c6f…f078backed Yes34c535.29$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.29425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x312c…e23ebacked Yes57c525.76$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.28933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5957…e94bbacked Yes16c504.47$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.673716.2%6 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae3…bc70backed No45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2006119.7%12 W · 49 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfba8…500abacked Yes25c500$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3751216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes57c497.47$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.05837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No71c486.73$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.5531565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa30…9971backed Yes26c481.16$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.931118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb558…6d3cbacked Yes69c469.88$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-76%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x111d…85f7backed Yes42c465.62$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.592227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x542b…f11fbacked Yes73c455.51$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+94.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No75c439.28$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.0124873%181 W · 67 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x68c7…fa37backed Yes10c438.87$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.98911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf366…9ad8backed Yes23c432.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.52258%2 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-71.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c4f…61ccbacked Yes20c427$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.61225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes26c411.91$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.0978811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.