Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7660a1087df2d57b35d9018f045ad553abb489b8cadf40205457b8c87afda41

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 31, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $298,851
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $142,349

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,851 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	6c	30,000$1,765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,765	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	22,685$645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645.49	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	19,359$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.81	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	18,625$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.22	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaedf…c648backed Yes	1c	11,735$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	10,276$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.28	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	5,641$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.28	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	15c	5,468$808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$808.1	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	17c	4,000$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	4,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	11c	3,019$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.28	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57f8…330abacked Yes	8c	3,000$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	3c	2,433$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.98	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	5c	2,007$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.87	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	2,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	1,907$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.25	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68c7…fa37backed Yes	11c	1,837$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.72	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed Yes	22c	1,500$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.42	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes	14c	1,348$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.74	103	25.2%26 W · 77 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	1,339$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.12	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	3c	1,250$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	8c	1,234$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80fc…42c3backed Yes	15c	1,200$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.36	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd4…0f95backed Yes	4c	1,150$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.65	10	20%2 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-10%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0865…3dffbacked Yes	1c	1,010$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-73.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	76	38.2%29 W · 47 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5844…aa7ebacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	9cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes	10c	952.52$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes	8c	808.95$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.12	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	774.75$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x931d…dd7abacked Yes	18c	765.18$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.43	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	2c	758.17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.89	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…99adbacked Yes	2c	644.69$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	104	34.6%36 W · 68 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	4c	603.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.19	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	3c	600$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	9c	600$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.37	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb0…d543backed Yes	9c	555$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.18	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x68f3…776cbacked Yes	11c	508.31$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.41	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	3c	499.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa636…0011backed Yes	8c	440$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.76	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes	14c	435.4$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.23	82	11%9 W · 73 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	7c	423.04$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.65	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed Yes	14c	350.05$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	10c	350$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47e4…7569backed Yes	14c	300$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.04	60	20%12 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.3	163	19%31 W · 132 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x618f…f2f3backed Yes	7c	287.96$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	67	13.4%9 W · 58 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes	10c	286.96$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	238	31.1%74 W · 164 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	8c	246.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26cc…5307backed Yes	21c	240$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-44%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	23c	214.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4312…a388backed Yes	5c	214.05$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd166…cdc1backed Yes	21c	213.81$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef5…453bbacked Yes	6c	203.21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.36	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9bd…0568backed Yes	9c	201.47$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	8c	200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f4f…6232backed Yes	13c	191.04$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.84	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes	8c	177.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xee04…1b0bbacked Yes	12c	163.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes	10c	152.06$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4fa…3c79backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b4…66babacked Yes	13c	122$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.86	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8928…1705backed Yes	10c	121.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3d9…8169backed Yes	15c	120$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.52	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	16c	110$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.71	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf469…7aa9backed Yes	14c	106.94$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-52%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d6a…6de3backed Yes	19c	104.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-77.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	13c	101.63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0850…74c5backed Yes	21c	100.08$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.51	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	174	34.5%60 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf9a…4e95backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.93	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x787c…7ae2backed Yes	22c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.82	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc48…5d3bbacked Yes	52c	38.16$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe9f4…e234backed No	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+125.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event