Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbd14094d578d2d38687e0c330d0cc9338355df2f534f99de2efa118651b335d

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 31, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $268,871
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $82,047

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,871 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaedf…c648backed Yes	0c	41,453$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc212…f53ebacked Yes	0c	27,800$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	17,668$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.82	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	17,000$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.42	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	10,451$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.04	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	6c	10,000$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	7,202$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.27	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	8c	5,217$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.27	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	6c	3,385$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.62	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	3,240$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.76	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	2,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	2,182$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.22	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68c7…fa37backed Yes	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes	5c	1,938$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.58	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	1,428$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.62	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd4…0f95backed Yes	8c	1,323$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.69	10	20%2 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-10%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	2c	1,167$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x995d…404dbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes	8c	999.99$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	76	38.2%29 W · 47 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68f3…776cbacked Yes	6c	881.25$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.61	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	4c	800$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.26	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	5c	686.52$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.41	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b3…c1b1backed Yes	6c	644.73$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50df…1f07backed Yes	18c	563.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	4c	558.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fb0…d543backed Yes	4c	555$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x618f…f2f3backed Yes	2c	454.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	67	13.4%9 W · 58 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	12c	410$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.2	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	5c	396.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x803d…a7f8backed Yes	7c	380.47$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.96	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	4c	375$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa636…0011backed Yes	6c	360$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.45	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb27b…09f4backed Yes	17c	349.88$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x47e4…7569backed Yes	5c	300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.75	60	20%12 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5957…e94bbacked Yes	10c	225$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	11c	184.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes	7c	159.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.58	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf092…cff6backed Yes	13c	157.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd4fa…3c79backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a1…fe8bbacked Yes	7c	144.35$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7b4…66babacked Yes	12c	120$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3d9…8169backed Yes	9c	120$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2bb…28fcbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	12cpaid	+58%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc48…5d3bbacked Yes	12c	99.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x72cb…542ebacked Yes	19c	78.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes	19c	52.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event