Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc56a4924b011ba77a2c27d83f480b789bdb940f5066914a732194a0c39eb095d

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 31, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $219,195
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,630

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,195 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaedf…c648backed Yes	0c	36,671$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	15,472$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.13	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18ae…aa14backed Yes	0c	13,697$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	10,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	9,062$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.14	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5a…fbb4backed Yes	2c	5,458$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	5,148$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.46	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	2c	5,000$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.99	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	0c	5,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f3…8692backed Yes	1c	4,278$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.25	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,559$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.1	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,688$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.13	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68c7…fa37backed Yes	6c	1,829$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.76	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	1c	1,815$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	1,212$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.76	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	3c	1,179$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.42	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e98…c060backed Yes	4c	1,012$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.05	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,002$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	2c	842.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	3c	774.39$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.09	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	2c	700$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50df…1f07backed Yes	15c	663.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	9c	560$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fb0…d543backed Yes	3c	555$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf661…ee46backed Yes	4c	540$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.72	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	502.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacba…d1d8backed Yes	9c	213.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa881…8b3ebacked Yes	13c	99.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event