Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa42d15ddc3292a35c3380934219f6f84ae21b603847b3c2599cb5cad39b63f32

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 29, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $125,947
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $63,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,947 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	9,687$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.62	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	8,453$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	3,800$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	2,870$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.69	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	2,326$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.23	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	6c	1,550$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.01	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	1,493$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.07	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	2c	1,304$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.1	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebe…9b6dbacked Yes	1c	1,274$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes	2c	1,045$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.87	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5844…aa7ebacked Yes	2c	999.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	9cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5836…b241backed Yes	17c	999.66$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.98	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf30…979abacked Yes	11c	885.47$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	18c	809.64$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.19	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a01…653bbacked Yes	22c	657.95$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9d…5954backed Yes	16c	630$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	19c	586.53$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02a0…8ca8backed Yes	18c	569.72$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.26per pick	43cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes	15c	500$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	82	11%9 W · 73 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab7e…2a96backed Yes	21c	500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7e…79e5backed Yes	20c	499.86$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa30…9971backed Yes	16c	498.94$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa114…fdadbacked Yes	17c	484.3$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19cc…3ea3backed No	78c	480$372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+29%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb27b…5d6bbacked Yes	23c	475$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f53…49b0backed Yes	23c	429.54$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	5c	427.65$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.18	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes	24c	418.07$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes	8c	392.76$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x496e…5690backed Yes	25c	324.45$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	22cpaid	-41%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	22c	295.26$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.52	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4067…d20ebacked Yes	21c	273.51$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5957…e94bbacked Yes	6c	263.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.93	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa526…34aabacked Yes	24c	251.63$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26cc…5307backed Yes	21c	240$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-44%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe515…63d2backed Yes	7c	235.14$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x370e…ad0fbacked Yes	22c	228.27$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee04…1b0bbacked Yes	23c	220.79$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda10…eeccbacked Yes	22c	189.27$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.22	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58fa…54e7backed Yes	22c	181.82$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+106.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2461…32f3backed Yes	12c	172.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	28cpaid	+24%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a2f…2318backed Yes	18c	170$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	20c	155.75$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.17	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	13c	154.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee38…a5a9backed Yes	20c	150$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ae…99b7backed Yes	21c	142.86$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa22f…604cbacked Yes	22c	136.36$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	25cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28c6…2e08backed Yes	15c	134.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	17c	122.17$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.84	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec6e…95c4backed Yes	17c	116.66$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67df…772fbacked Yes	18c	112.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes	20c	100.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	27.9%12 W · 31 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd68d…f152backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…09e2backed Yes	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d01…083fbacked Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7de0…7c66backed Yes	22c	92.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec12…8372backed Yes	18c	84.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf86d…f629backed Yes	22c	64.95$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	76c	60$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.2	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	21c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81cf…3087backed Yes	20c	60$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.94	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a5…94b7backed No	78c	59.6$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4ef…682fbacked Yes	19c	52.95$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	20c	52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	797	35.9%286 W · 511 L	-34.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb908…d47cbacked Yes	22c	50.05$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ab…3165backed Yes	21c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No	78c	25.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	78c	22.91$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.04	315	65.1%205 W · 110 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event