TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa526…34aa

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Lol, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5backed Under 2.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$11.09
Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5backed Over 2.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$12
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Alexander Zverev vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+156.4%+$78.21
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Minaurbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Hellenic Championship: Sebastian Korda vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Korda · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:0 against Jannik Sinner?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$44.93
US Open: Alcaraz vs. Sinner – Over 40.5 Games?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
US Open Final: Sinner vs. Alcaraz? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$21.43
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcarazbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.21
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-70.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+38.9%+$14
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$52.5
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$94.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$70.51
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+90.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Games Total: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+100%+$15
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+59.2%+$29.83
League of Legends: T1 vs. Dplus KIAbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$7.22
All 3 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+51.5%+$8.76
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+36.4%+$21.83
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3)backed Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+88.7%+$9.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Sep 6, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iowa vs. Iowa Statebacked Iowa State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$10.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$11.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Sep 16, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Holness be the next Prime Minister of Jamaica after the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$23.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+35.1%+$14.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$59.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$37.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 10, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brewers vs. Rangersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stars vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana reach $220 August 25–31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Sep 12, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elche CF win on 2025-09-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.37
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.