Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24cc5a31db0d93c99bf96d0dafb0f5b37aabacbf2a3e9b5fde4f6df8d45be807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 2,026$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.75 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Under 2.5 | 54c | 1,483$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.86 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 1,173$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.07 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b0…28f6backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 1,119$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.98 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 844.57$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.49 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 586.34$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.85 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e07…1f7ebacked Under 2.5 | 53c | 448.14$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over 2.5 | 60c | 334.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd691…0c27backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 317.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…9104backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 317$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.31 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Over 2.5 | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under 2.5 | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 395 | 34.4%136 W · 259 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…35ddbacked Under 2.5 | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over 2.5 | 49c | 298.02$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.58 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 261.55$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a7…0464backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 223.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…6786backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…3570backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 209.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…d0e7backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 156.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 150.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under 2.5 | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Over 2.5 | 67c | 131.11$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 465 | 51.2%238 W · 227 L | -23.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…6ff3backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 112.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ae…6bc8backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…a4eebacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Under 2.5 | 44c | 104$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +6.5wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…6bb8backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 101.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb539…cb26backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Over 2.5 | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa170…fba0backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 99.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 99.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…aa5cbacked Under 2.5 | 41c | 97.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Over 2.5 | 52c | 95.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…1dd2backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 92.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Over 2.5 | 41c | 81.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…4a12backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 73.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…016dbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…24b2backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 62.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…e403backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3014…493ebacked Under 2.5 | 59c | 58.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…fcbfbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…c9d1backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b4…3b95backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc04…72dcbacked Over 2.5 | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Under 2.5 | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 45.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…3455backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x262d…33ddbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 63.7%135 W · 77 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 44.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf24…0039backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Over 2.5 | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under 2.5 | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…76c9backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63e…a68bbacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…c2d3backed Over 2.5 | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab82…12e2backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 31.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…7ceebacked Over 2.5 | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Over 2.5 | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…33d4backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 23.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa526…34aabacked Over 2.5 | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…5adcbacked Over 2.5 | 60c | 17.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik SinnerSinner won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs SinnerSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Alcaraz (+1.5)Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.