Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3bcca548c8046dc7e21f3af137db87be3567366a6449d3655d3e08d758db9c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Under | 42c | 4,260$1,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 36cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 58c | 2,586$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.21 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Over | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 43c | 499.98$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b0…28f6backed Over | 58c | 430$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…a2f0backed Over | 57c | 184.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 57c | 177.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…7d56backed Over | 58c | 175.07$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under | 43c | 149.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 19c | 110.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0edc…59b1backed Under | 45c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…806abacked Over | 57c | 44.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…0f52backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…f56bbacked Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5this page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik SinnerSinner won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs SinnerSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Alcaraz (+1.5)Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.