TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5a7b…7701

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
79
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Tennis, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 53 out of 100; worst Weather at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST4955.1%27 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Warriors (-8.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Celtics (-14.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 231.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Rockets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Suns vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+89.2%+$17.85
Spread: Lakers (-11.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+81.8%+$20.45
Spread: Hawks (-1.5)backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Pistons vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+85.2%+$25.56
Warriors vs. Magicbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Spread: Pistons (-11.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Bulls vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Raptors (-7.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Knicks vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+85.2%+$21.3
Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 244.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+108.3%+$27.08
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+61.3%+$24.52
Clippers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+51.5%+$10.3
Bulls vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+163.2%+$24.47
Magic vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+66.7%+$13.33
Spread: Raptors (-5.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+69.5%+$24.32
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+100%+$30
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+75.4%+$22.63
Match O/U 23.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Sinner vs. Shelton: Match O/U 21.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+168.6%+$24.81
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Minaurbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Sheltonbacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+44.9%+$17.97
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaurbacked Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$24.77
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+49.3%+$31.37
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakinabacked Rybakina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+125.8%+$77.99
All 8 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. 49ersbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+25%+$5.25
Ravens vs. Vikingsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+87.2%+$14.83
Bills vs. Dolphinsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Browns vs. Jetsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$27
Falcons vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+96%+$28.88
All 5 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$30.6
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+40.8%+$6.13
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Real Madrid (-1.5)backed Rayo Vallecano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+66.7%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+42.9%+$6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+26.6%+$3.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stars vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.