Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23887ee60ff29e7395c2d729a4bde1d000407ce7d93849cc3405cb46283d2218
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb807…ba00backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…f087backed Yes | 3c | 6,111$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Yes | 1c | 3,638$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 0c | 3,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 2c | 3,113$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f2…1131backed No | 79c | 1,437$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.42 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +15.2wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +83%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 60c | 814.59$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.78 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 63c | 538$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.31 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…ed83backed Yes | 57c | 492.6$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 488.1$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.3 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…e636backed Yes | 50c | 397.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 7c | 220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…3609backed Yes | 43c | 210.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…6e70backed Yes | 70c | 205$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 64c | 155.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…9812backed Yes | 71c | 141.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 51c | 138.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ff…b941backed Yes | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 33c | 113.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 33c | 104.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 102$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…42e3backed No | 62c | 98.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…2b3ebacked Yes | 52c | 90.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 32c | 90.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…3506backed No | 59c | 71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 70.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…5797backed No | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 39c | 63.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 48c | 63.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 37c | 57.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 79c | 54.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 39c | 53.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 62c | 52.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Yes | 50c | 52.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…806ebacked No | 49c | 52.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecf…802bbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1240…6419backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb93…df7dbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d96…2d92backed Yes | 31c | 46.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…bf09backed Yes | 46c | 43.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 44c | 43.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…aceabacked Yes | 52c | 40.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35d…5289backed No | 53c | 37.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4269…3548backed Yes | 43c | 37.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…8dfabacked No | 53c | 34.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 60c | 32.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…371cbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13e…6051backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…2390backed Yes | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 29.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aeb…39a6backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 58c | 21.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0272…7deabacked Yes | 65c | 20.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…1301backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on November 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on November 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.