Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e33147c913790830449e70c73207b4830c460e7ae17348c3a5ea8070e26b765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,910$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 1c | 5,010$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…52debacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…dd82backed Yes | 3c | 1,505$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5af…db61backed Yes | 4c | 541.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 4c | 503.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…b38dbacked Yes | 8c | 468.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af0…a984backed Yes | 8c | 465.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab7…f70dbacked Yes | 5c | 459.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…5b26backed Yes | 5c | 456.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd006…290dbacked Yes | 5c | 453.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa201…eccfbacked Yes | 5c | 448.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8a…f514backed Yes | 4c | 447.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 7c | 403.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…72c8backed Yes | 8c | 235.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf11…2569backed Yes | 8c | 235.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c4…6b0fbacked Yes | 8c | 235.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd84…6804backed Yes | 8c | 235.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788b…9dadbacked Yes | 8c | 235.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…7778backed Yes | 8c | 235.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa735…6e09backed Yes | 8c | 235.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9801…1415backed Yes | 8c | 235.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…ca53backed Yes | 8c | 234.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71e…e147backed Yes | 8c | 234.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a4…bb86backed Yes | 8c | 234.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe67d…1156backed Yes | 8c | 234.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…5ed5backed Yes | 8c | 234.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…5917backed Yes | 8c | 234.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a4…69c9backed Yes | 8c | 234.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…d56bbacked Yes | 8c | 234.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807e…e908backed Yes | 8c | 234.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c82…7813backed Yes | 8c | 234.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…ee5abacked Yes | 8c | 234.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8388…e667backed Yes | 8c | 233.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…5c7ebacked Yes | 8c | 233.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…ef8ebacked Yes | 8c | 233.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…2c0fbacked Yes | 8c | 233.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66b…6664backed Yes | 8c | 233.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e3…2f40backed Yes | 8c | 233.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d4…9b2dbacked Yes | 8c | 233.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a7…a60abacked Yes | 8c | 233.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9126…bf26backed Yes | 8c | 233.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…f4bdbacked Yes | 8c | 233.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7af4…4b54backed Yes | 8c | 233.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c07…425fbacked Yes | 8c | 233.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…1969backed Yes | 8c | 232.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb14f…31e9backed Yes | 8c | 232.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…999dbacked Yes | 8c | 232.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf832…ff2cbacked Yes | 8c | 232.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…c7a7backed Yes | 8c | 232.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…789cbacked Yes | 8c | 232.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39f…9674backed Yes | 8c | 232.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6289…595dbacked Yes | 8c | 232.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8d…7f49backed Yes | 8c | 232.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…66b8backed Yes | 8c | 232.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…fb45backed Yes | 8c | 232.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…f314backed Yes | 8c | 231.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…b0e1backed Yes | 5c | 228.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26b…7a35backed Yes | 5c | 228.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…4187backed Yes | 7c | 154.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…e636backed Yes | 20c | 102.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on November 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on November 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.