Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3092fbf643e9c22db891138395e29a8df8459ba7f4c8b9be241668b4af3fb63b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 0c | 7,877$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…6e70backed No | 11c | 1,026$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…019dbacked No | 1c | 800.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 72c | 702.46$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.91 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 78c | 649.98$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa59b…9af3backed No | 6c | 564.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…f58fbacked No | 3c | 536.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 479.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 44c | 432.67$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.24 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 33c | 303.78$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.67 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 69c | 220$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 14c | 198$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 55c | 195$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 188.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…5797backed No | 14c | 149.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 32c | 123.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…e5b9backed Yes | 51c | 115.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe323…698ebacked No | 55c | 110.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes | 45c | 110.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde5b…406dbacked Yes | 48c | 104.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…4187backed No | 57c | 102.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 32c | 95.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 31c | 86.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7550…60f9backed Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…5f1cbacked No | 68c | 58.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…b1c7backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 29c | 49.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f2…1131backed Yes | 28c | 47.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +15.2wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +83%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 46.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…2b3ebacked Yes | 63c | 39.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…806ebacked Yes | 39c | 38.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 56c | 37.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2914…6162backed Yes | 44c | 33.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…fad0backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 55c | 27.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe29…3d35backed Yes | 51c | 26.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked No | 60c | 25.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed No | 80c | 24.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…4491backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…81bdbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 78c | 18.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…4bf3backed Yes | 78c | 18.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 78c | 18.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eda…87b0backed Yes | 72c | 15.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on November 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on November 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.