TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alcarazof Alcaraz, Minaur
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$532,486
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$559,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $532,486 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8628…6f0bbacked Alcaraz76c111,170$84,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,751.211050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Minaur24c76,105$18,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,102.8510845.4%49 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Minaur13c43,271$5,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,795.941,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Minaur22c32,136$6,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,922.282,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Minaur22c30,291$6,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,684.1316644.6%74 W · 92 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minaur15c25,649$3,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,772.248,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Alcaraz76c23,383$17,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,687.3524544.9%110 W · 135 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Alcaraz78c16,145$12,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,551.8165647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c57…c94dbacked Minaur19c13,588$2,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,581.71540%6 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-38.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Minaur18c11,951$2,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,106.4322037.7%83 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Minaur0c11,141$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.662,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Minaur26c9,958$2,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,589.059935.4%35 W · 64 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Minaur20c9,762$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.3711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Minaur17c9,376$1,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,576.212,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Minaur17c7,613$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.174930.6%15 W · 34 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Minaur18c7,118$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.8276140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3333…ed90backed Alcaraz77c5,808$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.311485.7%12 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+31.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Alcaraz74c5,005$3,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.356,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9005…d988backed Minaur6c5,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.51944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid-21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x614b…5845backed Minaur9c4,066$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.083727%10 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Alcaraz79c3,797$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.3728952.6%152 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Minaur16c3,637$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.2665242.8%279 W · 373 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Minaur31c3,596$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.7722629.2%66 W · 160 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8156…27c2backed Minaur19c3,500$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+44.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Minaur14c2,626$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.192,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Minaur14c2,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.9957645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcf…48e1backed Minaur9c2,437$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Minaur18c2,366$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.1825722.2%57 W · 200 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3db…8e79backed Minaur3c2,366$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed Alcaraz75c2,265$1,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.985151%26 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Minaur21c2,205$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.6155143.4%239 W · 312 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Minaur18c1,888$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.944125.4%112 W · 329 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd798…9338backed Minaur11c1,774$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1931758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7a4…d765backed Minaur2c1,664$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.08812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Minaur21c1,500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31012050%60 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x766b…e4ffbacked Alcaraz76c1,308$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Minaur14c1,303$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.963354.5%18 W · 15 L+7.6wins+0.23per pick31cpaid+65.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Minaur39c1,233$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.953342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fa2…cf15backed Minaur11c1,151$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0830339.3%119 W · 184 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Minaur21c1,091$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.1837230.4%113 W · 259 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Minaur19c1,015$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.771,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ada…43b0backed Alcaraz75c974.99$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.2523852.1%124 W · 114 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d7f…0444backed Minaur12c944.8$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d8b…3047backed Minaur21c904.29$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.95450%27 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Minaur16c865$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9988446.8%414 W · 470 L+3.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b85…e89abacked Alcaraz60c826.69$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.692958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed Minaur18c748.22$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.727335.6%26 W · 47 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df0…8f4ebacked Minaur14c728.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.272339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Minaur16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10062742.4%266 W · 361 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc597…4ee7backed Alcaraz74c600$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.21741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf3…3bf8backed Minaur8c599.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496930.4%21 W · 48 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8213…8c05backed Minaur13c586.23$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772825%7 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa776…a17bbacked Minaur18c571.94$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.952817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cea…2d58backed Minaur9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Minaur15c526.29$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.324440.9%18 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7e…ba65backed Minaur19c510.53$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Minaur17c499$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.831,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Minaur21c462.97$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4839534.4%136 W · 259 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d13…a252backed Minaur26c385.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Minaur19c381.93$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.882,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ec3…d1c7backed Minaur14c360.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f56…f93cbacked Minaur14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Minaur42c357.14$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15022744.5%101 W · 126 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe363…6786backed Alcaraz79c353.85$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.31757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Minaur17c340.32$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8511343.4%49 W · 64 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Minaur18c333.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040141.9%168 W · 233 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6e…8d20backed Minaur12c332.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70d2…f395backed Alcaraz63c330$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.13070%21 W · 9 L+6.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+44.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xec15…37a7backed Alcaraz79c317.39$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.39450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-28.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Alcaraz80c304$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.870465.2%459 W · 245 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Alcaraz70c302$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7243948.5%213 W · 226 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x09b6…f48dbacked Minaur13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3932050%160 W · 160 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4731…cba8backed Minaur17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110846.3%50 W · 58 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked Alcaraz78c300$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.71258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Minaur15c268.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4026921.2%57 W · 212 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c89…3202backed Minaur17c267.44$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-73.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4301…3bc8backed Alcaraz80c250.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6587…6e84backed Alcaraz78c250$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d48…b9a1backed Alcaraz78c250$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-65%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x51ec…a7b9backed Minaur19c244.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4510822.2%24 W · 84 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa207…bcdcbacked Alcaraz78c242.95$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.45650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Minaur16c223.78$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.81,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x95a5…4f7cbacked Minaur9c210$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Alcaraz78c205.72$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7238951.9%202 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f96…3608backed Minaur42c195.68$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.19450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x25df…ba12backed Alcaraz80c190$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc225…4e1ebacked Minaur14c164.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d26…ccb8backed Alcaraz79c162$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4613762.8%86 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d9…3be3backed Minaur31c160.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016459.8%98 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Alcaraz79c152.6$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4108…a80dbacked Minaur18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277541.3%31 W · 44 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Minaur20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1334842.2%147 W · 201 L+12.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x647d…3cd9backed Minaur18c149.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275358.5%31 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Minaur24c136.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.388645.3%39 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x888c…e9ecbacked Minaur11c136$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Alcaraz70c130$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3917867.4%120 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8309…62b1backed Alcaraz78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca9…6ec9backed Alcaraz79c126.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.65580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+60.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a29…c0b6backed Alcaraz79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.583675%27 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x637d…2ab4backed Minaur19c121.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.