La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Real Madrid (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab47ee967e6771ee8204fbfcc8ce27cc92b2592c9d162dc87957796f4d79e95a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rayo Vallecanoof Real Madrid, Rayo Vallecano
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rayo Vallecano | 61c | 11,777$7,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,601.69 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Real Madrid | 39c | 3,765$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.84 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Real Madrid | 39c | 3,761$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Rayo Vallecano | 60c | 2,162$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.32 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…ee33backed Real Madrid | 40c | 1,380$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8b…b3c3backed Real Madrid | 38c | 1,092$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Real Madrid | 35c | 710.88$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…d3e9backed Rayo Vallecano | 62c | 553.2$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…431abacked Real Madrid | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…8939backed Real Madrid | 37c | 481.76$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…792bbacked Real Madrid | 44c | 455.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Real Madrid | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…cf4fbacked Real Madrid | 42c | 377.9$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Rayo Vallecano | 61c | 377.05$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…a408backed Real Madrid | 39c | 256.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Real Madrid | 42c | 223.69$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Real Madrid | 38c | 208$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Rayo Vallecano | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…5c15backed Real Madrid | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Rayo Vallecano | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Real Madrid | 30c | 169.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…1abcbacked Rayo Vallecano | 59c | 169.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Real Madrid | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Real Madrid | 40c | 131$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Real Madrid | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Real Madrid | 36c | 116.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Rayo Vallecano | 58c | 113.8$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Real Madrid | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 262 | 42.7%112 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…0aedbacked Rayo Vallecano | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a13…ab4ebacked Real Madrid | 29c | 96.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda5c…ed5bbacked Real Madrid | 44c | 91.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Real Madrid | 39c | 89.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…7960backed Rayo Vallecano | 61c | 82.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Real Madrid | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Rayo Vallecano | 57c | 74.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…7a24backed Real Madrid | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Real Madrid | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…8e0fbacked Real Madrid | 44c | 66.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Real Madrid | 39c | 53.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 283 | 42.8%121 W · 162 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Real Madrid | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 276 | 52.5%145 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Real Madrid | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 317 | 51.1%162 W · 155 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Real Madrid | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…2f76backed Real Madrid | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Real Madrid | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x097e…cbdfbacked Real Madrid | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…9364backed Real Madrid | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Rayo Vallecano | 57c | 45.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe65…251abacked Real Madrid | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Real Madrid | 39c | 37.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 218 | 49.1%107 W · 111 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Rayo Vallecano | 70c | 35.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Real Madrid | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…857fbacked Rayo Vallecano | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…6df5backed Real Madrid | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…9f48backed Rayo Vallecano | 65c | 33.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…74fdbacked Real Madrid | 42c | 30.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…79efbacked Real Madrid | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Rayo Vallecano | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…50dbbacked Rayo Vallecano | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3501…0591backed Rayo Vallecano | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb82…ef9bbacked Rayo Vallecano | 62c | 19.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Madrid (-1.5)this page
- Rayo Vallecano vs. Real Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rayo Vallecano vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.