La Liga · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd766a3435ca119c0cd699ea8c002bb7d39c0893bf6776f8e99ad241843439cbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 37c | 5,769$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,648.83 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 4,816$2,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.04 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 61c | 4,074$2,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,485.59 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Over | 51c | 3,425$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 26c | 3,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 2c | 1,449$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 41c | 1,150$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.5 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Under | 38c | 1,013$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb15…006cbacked Under | 38c | 992.47$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 29c | 976.19$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.08 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Under | 38c | 855.26$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.26 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 40c | 814$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.43 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 62c | 748$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.76 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 58c | 637.59$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.8 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 12c | 509.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 37c | 499.94$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.97 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 65c | 468.21$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.7 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…2eb1backed Over | 3c | 365.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Over | 62c | 333.33$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 38c | 332.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.45 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…3b53backed Under | 38c | 325.79$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Under | 72c | 286.48$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 39c | 266.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 76c | 264.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd9…cbffbacked Over | 35c | 181.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…af7abacked Over | 62c | 172.82$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…763ebacked Over | 63c | 160$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 228 | 59.6%136 W · 92 L | +18.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 37c | 149.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8877…1fa6backed Over | 49c | 126.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…76ccbacked Over | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7b…0179backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5244…23d9backed Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 38c | 83.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12db…7275backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…6344backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…167dbacked Over | 59c | 71.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 64c | 71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 100 | 63%63 W · 37 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a1…4799backed Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff8…3011backed Over | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…e12fbacked Under | 71c | 63.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 42c | 57.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fe…e803backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7d…5b5abacked Over | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…d81fbacked Over | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ca…740abacked Under | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…8f71backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 59c | 49.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…df0bbacked Under | 67c | 43.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Under | 51c | 41.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Over | 47c | 36.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 36c | 36.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 62c | 33.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a2…8cb0backed Over | 64c | 32.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…c2e3backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…e313backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc30…197abacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 67c | 29.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Under | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Over | 64c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…702abacked Over | 62c | 24.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c3…f271backed Over | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabae…a762backed Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…f826backed Under | 76c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb961…b69ebacked Under | 60c | 18.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano vs. Real Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Real Madrid (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.